SnPMonster | Options Trading Blog

OXY (07 August, 2010)

2010-08-06T11:28:00.000-07:00

OXY is approaching an important support zone, this puppy has been trading in a well defined range...

SPX 980

2010-07-01T22:18:00.000-07:00

I spent the night analyzing option chains and concluded that, SPX 980 is a very solid buy if ever it gets there....after all it is only about 45 points from SPX 1024.

From there, SPX could bounce to 1024 then 1050 then 1075 possibly 1100.

XOM (JUNE 28, 2010)

2010-06-27T09:42:00.000-07:00

XOM decline is fast approaching a perceived support around 58.5. Below that, 57- 57.5 could offer some support.

Option activity seems to suggest some form of trading range between 57.5 - 60.

Some events affected my trading performance

2010-06-23T07:51:00.000-07:00

Recently, some of my family close friends passed away in a car accident....only half the family survived.

This event kinda shocked me for a little while and I felt sad momentarily.

But I already knew how to overcome this sadness.....no problems.... What I did was watch my favourite sad videos all over again to help me get over it.....lol....I am laughing at myself now....

You can try this too if you want to.... Here are the links:
Laura Fabian, Crying Heals the Soul

Copper, Base Metals (May 24, 2010)

2010-05-24T02:22:00.000-07:00

Copper and Base Metals daily charts are showing some divergence.

Usually this means a big move is coming, in a bear market this type of setups could end up as a bull trap.

On the other hand, if in fact the uptrend is still intact....then this is a buy signal.

SPX - possible range trading ahead (May 23, 2010)

2010-05-23T07:53:00.000-07:00

Option activity on the SPX is indicating a possible consolidation week.

In one of the scenario that I analysed, we could see trading somewhere near to SPX 1100. All indications point to some form of volatility squeeze play. So keep an eye any rapid decline on the VIX.

On any directional moves, it is still fairly early to tell.

Bearishnes is still in the air (May 23, 2010)

2010-05-22T20:33:00.000-07:00

It feels like there are a lot of bearish stocks out there. From europe to emerging markets, there is not the slightest hint of bullishness on the horizon just yet.

Any bullishness in equities will most likely be driven by hope and optimism rather than fundamentals. Sharp Rallies IMHO should be viewed as potential bull traps.

Here are some charts to show you where some of the opportunities are:

PBR has formed a giant Head and Shoulders.

Fundamentally, this stock has more downside when you see head lines like
"Petrobras board OKs massive hike in share issuance"

On the European end, the TED spread is not looking too good either. US equities has all along tolerated the TED spread during the recent melt up....I just wonder what is in store this time?

If we consider only US equities, money is still not coming out of US bonds either. Interest rates will most likely stay low as long as it needs to be... There could still be some upside for TLT, watch out for more selloffs in the equity market.

As for GLD, there is nothing bearish in the chart just yet. The recent decline could be due to selling ahead of European holidays. Just need to see what happens when they come back.

Of course, there is always the "World Cup 2010" from 11 June - 11 July. Will these fund managers take a long vacation? Just hope they are not only keeping their eye on the ball! ;)

We must remember that short selling equities may not be the right strategy for the whales/bears to get the best prices in equities....the way I see it...the most effective strategy for them is to move their money into treasuries and assets like gold temporarily.

chaunceyherbie's survey

2010-05-21T11:49:00.000-07:00

Loading...

Click For Results: Spreadsheet

SPX downside risk (May 21, 2010)

2010-05-21T02:40:00.000-07:00

I spent the night looking through the charts of major SPX components that pose the most risk in this market environment.

AAPL still pose some downside risk due to lack of consolidation areas below current price.

The rally for JPM starting from JULY was due to optimism for improving earnings. I think there is still a lot of news that has yet to be factored in to this stock. If it breaks below 37, 32 is the obvious target.

XOM, is probably going to retest those lows.

So you see, there is still a lot of downside risk. I wouldn't know where the bottom for this selloff is...but am not writing off a retest of somewhere close to 1036.

SPX observations (May 18, 2010

2010-05-18T05:32:00.000-07:00

SPX made a hammer candle stick pattern yesterday. Not sure if this is indicating a possible trend change...but I will start looking for any signs of higher low that could lead to a channel in the short term.

Pure Manipulation (May 10, 2010)

2010-05-10T04:18:00.000-07:00

What rally in the SPX? This sudden spike in price amounts to market manipulation... Checkout the pre-market volumes on some key stocks, AAPL price rose by 15.64 dollars with volumes of just 103,475?
CRM rose by 4.18 dollars with just 250 shares traded?

Key Observations (April 22, 2009)

2010-04-21T23:10:00.000-07:00

The S&P 500 index is holding up well despite some selling in Financials, Health Care and Mining Sector.
It is all too clear that some money is moving into Aerospace and Defense and Industrials...and that should hold up the index for the time being.
Some profit taking in foreign markets (Canada, Brazil, Russia, China) were also noticeable.

One key stock that I have been watching is AAPL, I think it is holding up very well and am neither bullish nor bearish on this stock at the moment.
The chart of AAPL has a big gap to fill and this is caused by about 3,850,550 shares at an average price of 250 dollars per share = 962,637,500 Dollars (close to 1 billion dollars)

I see two possibilities for this type of move:
1. Funds are finding a place to hide due to worries that the FED might hike rates in the coming FOMC meeting.
2. Investors/Funds could be thinking that they bought AAPL shares cheap and are hoping to sell the shares to as many buyers as they can. In my opionion, that will most likely not work....and will present a shorting opportunity similar to POT. We shall see.

Moving forward, I see short term strength in Small Caps especially Regional Banks, REITS and selected Consumer Staples.
On the Metals and Fertilizers, I see weakness at the moment...just waiting for strength to develop for some trend trading.

I am also watching UTX, VMW, NFLX to see if there is any follow through of this uptrend. It seems that there is also a lot of call buying in TZA...this could be a very bullish or bearish indicator.....also watching the Russell for any suprises

Base Metal Hurdles

2010-04-09T02:35:00.000-07:00

As you might have noticed, there has been some profit taking in metal names like MTL, X, AKS for the past two days.

I usually refer to the DBB to see what is going on in the underlying. The chart shows that DBB is retreating a little with the descending trend line acting as a hurdle to overcome for now.

SPX, RUT in focus

2010-03-31T04:34:00.000-07:00

Here we are again, facing another key resistance level on SPX and RUT. I don't want to look at the Dow at the moment because it has the least components.

On the SPX, we know that breaking above 1177 - 1180 decisively could bring us to 1191.16. The key resistance after that is 1200.23. So let us worry about these levels for now.

On the RUT, what surprised me is the ability of the market to break through 647 - 675 with relative ease. At the moment 693 is the key resistance level to watch. The chart looks ugly for the region between 693 to 718.53. It looks to me that this the most likely index to pullback first...
Any attempts to reach 718.53 could look more like a grind up.

Pivot Points

2010-03-20T11:02:00.001-07:00

Wrong Opening Price

2010-03-05T08:10:00.001-08:00

Performance comparison of 3X ETFs

2010-03-01T17:37:00.001-08:00

GOOG

2010-02-26T03:06:00.001-08:00

OX

2010-02-16T13:46:00.001-08:00

MRVL (Jan 19, 2010)

2010-01-18T12:40:00.000-08:00

Nice chart with plenty of space to move.

Trading Plan for Monday (Jan 11, 2009)

2010-01-11T02:37:00.000-08:00

This market has presented fantastic opportunities for some decent trades in the past few weeks.
Index traders have not benefited much though...due to a perceived flat market...which is not true.

If given a choice, of course everybody wants to trade the indexes so that they can do less work on stock analysis...lol. Analysing stocks is a tiring and tedious process and can shorten your life....hehe.

I am really suprised that this blog still has a lot of followers despite me purposely not posting a damn thing for weeks....

This week is OpEx week, so be careful out there...just don't be lured into any unnecessary traps...thats all I have to say.... If you like, you can still stick to some of the stocks that I posted....

After all, why open a can of worms if you have a choice not to do so... Trade safe and trade smart...

If you happen to like drinking Coca Cola....keep an eye to see where this dip will lead to....

Trading Plan for Tuesday (Jan 5, 2009)

2010-01-04T21:59:00.000-08:00

GS could retest 176, taking out 180 will path a way for a retest of 190.

MOS is releasing earnings results on Tuesday, will be watching fertilizer names for any side effects.

SPG play could be interesting, at the moment this stock is resting on the 20 EMA on the daily chart. A more prudent buy will be around 74.72, we will see whether 83.83 resistance gets retested soon.

Watchlist (Dec 28, 2009)

2009-12-27T15:12:00.000-08:00

There are so many interesting potential trades out there, the list just goes on and on.

With the coming new year, I see the first 3 months of trading as risky and it is best to be prepared for any unforeseen profit taking activities by big funds.

So I narrowed my focus to as few items in my watch list as possible:

X is still moving, the target looks like the top of the wedge. On any pullbacks back to the black line, it is still a buy

The bonds yields are still on their way up, on any pullbacks it is still a buy. When stocks begin to sell off, yields should come back down....there is still plenty of time before the FED tightens rates

XOM is setting up for a huge move in either direction, the path with least resistance should win...

Dow Jones and GLD (Nov 23, 2009)

2009-11-23T05:29:00.000-08:00

I am going to focus on the Dow Jones Industrial Average the charts are easier to analyse...SPX is a very big index and overhead resistance proves to be quite heavy...not sure if there are any benefits in trading it.

In the near term, I see the Dow moving towards 10552 - 10600.

I am also looking and GLD which I think still have a lot of potential upside. GLD has never reached this high in history, so there is no overhead resistance to be see....it can go as high as long as there is demand.... At the moment 114.28 is the projected target if we use fibonacci projection.

Euro (Nov 21, 2009)

2009-11-20T10:56:00.000-08:00

Does this look bullish or bearish to you?

EURO (Nov 18, 2009)

2009-11-18T02:18:00.000-08:00

A triangle is in play for the Euro, if it does not break out above....trading range could be tight while awaiting a retest of the bottom support line again

EURO (Nov 8, 2009)

2009-11-17T08:30:00.000-08:00

Euro has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern on the 60 min.
On the daily chart, its is still above 50 EMA...so the uptrend is still intact.

Not sure about you guys, but Head and Shoulders to me is just a guide for projecting the target...nothing more...

The Euro has to break the necklines which can be at so many places....so taking it one thing at a time

ES Target (Nov 17, 2009)

2009-11-17T04:24:00.000-08:00

Morning folks, we could see another push towards ES 1125 before any meaningful pullbacks. So i will be very cautious not get into any short positions before I see some confirmation of a tradable correction.

AKS, X (Nov 05, 2009)

2009-11-05T04:44:00.000-08:00

I am paying close attention to these steel names for their clearer wave patterns.

Should the US decide to have a second stimulus package or a mark recovery in the automotive sector...these names will benefit from that.

On the other hand, there is ample opportunity on the downside as well...

EURO - No trend change in sight (Nov 3, 2009)

2009-11-03T02:28:00.000-08:00

For those of you who are optimistic about the EURO, be careful with your bullish biases.

Updated Chart 10.51 am

Annas MA bull call spread

2009-11-02T06:18:00.001-08:00

SPX - November 10 to 11 a key date (Oct 29, 2009)

2009-10-28T11:52:00.000-07:00

Going down to 1012? A rally to new highs in two days seems insane.... November 10-11 is a key cycle date and is also a holiday

SPX CCI buy signal, waiting for confirmation (Oct 27, 2009)

2009-10-27T07:15:00.000-07:00

I have all along suspected that it could print a doji day today.....so not wasting my energy on doing any trades yet.

I see the first buy signal on CCI, so if we end with a doji day today...a higher high or lower low should be able to confirm the direction of the market....

Usually when the stochastics gives a signal, it should be a confirmation....the only thing is the stochastics is always 1 day late...lol.

I suspect the overall trend will be determined by the dollar strength

Bounce could be coming for GS and Transports (27 Oct, 2009)

2009-10-26T19:38:00.001-07:00

The transports have a confluence of support at around here. So do not be suprised to see a bounce.

GS has a minor positive divergence, it is still trading sideways in a wide range.... Note the doji, ideally we want to see a more narrow ranged doji for us to pick a direction should we get a higher high or lower low.

IWM H and S forming (27 Oct, 2009)

2009-10-26T11:17:00.000-07:00

This is a chart of the IWM, you can clearly see a Head and Shoulders forming, in this so called "bull market" bears often fall for the trap of shorting the hell of something that shows this pattern.

I think you need to stay alert for a rally from the neckline. In this case...the first one is around 59.

Watch the Rails (24 Oct, 2009)

2009-10-23T22:39:00.000-07:00

The transports appear to be leading this leg down in the S&P 500. I believe there could be a possibility that some rails could retrace up to 50% in November.

Lets start with UNP.

Put action is pointing to a target price of 52.27 or lower.

Of course the other scenario is maybe UNP will stay above 59, we just have to wait and see. MMs who are playing this side of the coin have a lot of margin or perhaps they have already made their money when UNP was on its way down.

As for CSX, option activity seem to point to a possible low of 40.

As for the other two...BNI and NSC I have no comments on them at the moment. UNP tends to be a more speculative stock....so be careful out there...

GS options (Oct 22, 2009)

2009-10-22T02:51:00.000-07:00

Just wish to share with you on my observations on GS option activity. GS started the descend on the 14th of October.

Imagine if you had purchased a put on the 180 strike price....You will only be be making real money beginning from 20th of October. Amazing isn't it..?

Point is GS made a lower high on 20th of October....but the decrease in volatility on that day made the put options on the 180 strike price seem ineffective.

On the other hand if you have shorted the sector using FAZ, you tend to get a higher high for this instrument when XLF was making lower lows.

On the other hand, if you have sold calls options at the 190 strike price. You can really see a huge difference....of course...I am not saying that writing calls is for everybody....just look at the gaps downs...if that had been a gap up...that could blow your account....lol

Another way is to buy deeper ITM puts like the 190 strike price....of course that will be more expensive...lol

My Strategy moving forward: Watch out for buy signals between 175 - 180.

Watch the Euro (Oct 6 , 2009)

2009-10-06T01:04:00.000-07:00

Fundamentally, Euro is a currency to watch to gauge the direction of the stock market...whether you are trading earnings or commodity stocks.

Technically, the Euro is still in an uptrend if we look at the daily chart since Nov 2008. If we draw a Fibonacci Retracement from July 2008 highs to December 2008 lows. Notice that the FXE went above the 61.8% level momentarily in Sept 2009 before retracing back below this level recently.

What we should be watching for within the next few days will be whether the uptrend is going to continue if FXE gets above 61.8% again. If that happens then 149 could be the next level of resistance.

Up to now, I still haven't seen any signs of a change in trend unless the 20 EMA starts rolling over. Of course that doesn't necessarily have to be so, it could just hang around right about here and go sideways.

SPX next level to for bounce (Oct 2, 2009)

2009-10-01T12:10:00.000-07:00

We are pretty close to another area of confluence of Fibonacci levels and support level. 1025 is an area that I will be watching for a bounce.

Revised GS possible target (Oct 1, 2009)

2009-10-01T08:29:00.000-07:00

Option activity has changed....right now I have revised the target for GS to 180 for a start. At the moment I am relying on technical indicators for a trade.

GS, RIG (Sept 24, 2009)

2009-09-23T14:29:00.000-07:00

I have been busy trading the indexes lately, as mentioned when you are at such high levels in the S&P...you cannot afford to be complacent. Trust me, I have gone through more than 100 charts and I did not like the overbought conditions at all. So I played safe by playing the SPY....

Back by popular demand, here are couple ideas for this OpEx....all can change if the market gets too bearish....

GS is a buy if it ever hits 175, usually my forecast for GS never works...will see this time.

Watch out for buy signals if RIG hits 80, I misplaced the calculations so will do with just the chart.

Funny Money too needs to be profitable (Sept 23, 2009)

2009-09-23T02:56:00.000-07:00

Seeing a lot of funny money in action...? Getting frustrated with stationary market action?
Don't worry, funny money too will one day realize that what they do won't be profitable for them.

There is this perception that, organizations that use funny money to pump this market up can keep doing this forever until the market reaches the moon.... lol. I don't believe so!

Imagine if you were a market maker (MM) trying to get the so called "money on the sidelines" to join in the rally and then sell at higher prices....What will MM be feeling now if no "money on the sidelines" wants to participate at these prices...? Wait until next year? What will MMs do next...?

Hah....there is no need to guess...its just pure common sense.....I see MMs will eventually be forced to "bring prices down to more acceptable levels".

So folks be cautious, don't get overly bullish....for MMs (bull tards) to remain profitable....They need the market to participate...or else they will just be wasting their money propping this market up.

In the coming months, if the market continue like this. I think the options market and stock market will experience significant decrease in volume. When that happens, funny money will have to adopt a new approach.

SPX fibonacci retracement level confluence

2009-09-17T10:27:00.000-07:00

This is a chart of SPX showing a confluence of fibonacci retracement levels from the highs of Oct 2008 - the lows of March 2009...and fibonacci projection levels from the lows of march 2009.
This area of confluence is between 1070 to 1115 with price resistance levels at 1095 and 1109.

Most technical traders pay attention to these levels and I am expecting a test of these levels soon and will be watching out for the next major retracement to about 919.

SPX Strategy (Sept 17, 2009)

2009-09-17T02:48:00.000-07:00

Tiring week, with so many things going on...whoosh.

This market is getting more and more dangerous, even though rallies did happen...but I think the gains per day is too quick. If they are hoping that people will chase the trade....they are very wrong. What used to be 5 day handle rise has been compressed into a 1 day rise. At these levels if you are going long...you cannot afford to be complacent.

Here is a chart of the SPX, it appears that somewhere near Oct 01 - 05 the market could present an opportunity...whether that will be the top or bottom ...hah that I do not know.

The next level of resistance is around 1109.5....that aside we must remember that most of the overhead supply has been sold off and I do not write off the possibility that the market can still go higher. On the other hand, any sell off could be so fast that you will not have a chance to get your hands on the sell trigger. What is the whole point Market Makers/ Stock Gods...? This is no fun.

I am focusing now on conservative swing trade setups and do less trading if not necessary.

SPX Targets moving forward (Sept 11, 2009)

2009-09-10T16:53:00.000-07:00

There is fresh energy coming into the markets, not necessary fresh money. Traders coming back on vacation took the opportunity to buy aggressively when the market dipped to 995...and hence a rally ensued with greedy looking green candles...

Based on the technicals on the SPX chart, there is a confluence of "Fibonacci level - Weekly Pivot Point Level and Resistance Lines" between 1047.16.22 - 1056.30. Note that if tomorrow... SPX goes above 1047, it is likely to attempt 1053 as pointed out by Fujisan.

The next key area to watch if 1056.30 is breached with conviction is 1073.67-1078.98 another confluence of "Fibonacci level - Weekly Pivot Point Level - Weekly 100 EMA" between . That perhaps won't happen tomorrow.

Here is the weekly chart of the SPX:

Smart Money is Selling (Sept 11, 2009)

2009-09-10T16:14:00.000-07:00

So are you getting more bullish with today's market action?

Here is just an idea of what some smart money have been up to:

MSFT

CHK - Bullish on Natural Gas??

GOOG

Trading Plan for Thursday (Sept 10, 2009)

2009-09-10T02:48:00.000-07:00

Interesting up trend in the markets for the past few days.....but an important test is coming in the next 2 to 3 days....

Here is a chart of TLT, note the positive divergence in MACD and the buy signal. I think there could be a bounce in the bonds and if it rises above the 20 EMA, we could see the markets halt or slide a little. The ideal target for a bounce is around 92.33 but if we see volume coming in on the bonds then this could go far.

UUP (Sept 9, 2009)

2009-09-09T11:32:00.001-07:00

CMED (Sept 3, 2009)

2009-09-03T03:37:00.000-07:00

This stock has been beaten down to March lows, I would be watching this stock from now on for any increase in buying volume...The first green shoot was registered yesterday.

Watch the China and Brazil (01 Sept, 2009)

2009-09-01T04:40:00.001-07:00

Feeling frustrated with static markets or lack of decent trade setups...? Who isn't...lol

September is usually bearish for stocks....but for these few years....I wouldn't be counting on the S&P to make any decent corrections for market participants to get in....anyway we shall see.

I think right now, emerging markets is a better play to watch out for the next swing trade. Partly because there is less interference from the government and they can behave more naturally.

Check out these two charts for PBR and CHL....beautiful aren't it?

Trading Plan for Monday (31 August, 2009)

2009-08-29T14:55:00.000-07:00

The key point I will be watching next week is the US dollar....which I believe is linked to more to the Yen. Whether the Japanese election results will result in further rally of the Yen or a sell the news event shall be answered pretty soon....

The chart of SPY shows that we have arrived at a significant pivot point yet again.....That is one reason why I exited all my positions. I am expecting either a huge rally or a pullback to somewhere between 101 - 102.

Whichever it is, I hope these MMs won't make life harder for market participants by gaping up/ down....Modern investors aren't stupid, they know the risk rewards before putting anymore money on the table.

I will assume a neutral stance going into next week. Here is my watch list:
SPY, HES, V, FLR

Market is still moving (August 27, 2009)

2009-08-27T00:29:00.000-07:00

For the past 3 days the SPY gave the impression that the market is going sideways....That is true for some sectors but I still see some sectors moving.

Take RTH for example, being the most bearish sector of all...the bulls are continuing to squeeze the shorts.

How about Credit Card companies, aren't they bearish just a week ago....?

How about airlines, isn't there less passengers with the swine flu lurking around....?

There are tons of stocks out there if you could think of a bearish idea..people are bored and looking for somethings to do....no doubt they might get burned one day....But that is how risk management comes in....don't get too greedy and you should be alrite.

Trading Plan for Monday (August 24, 2009)

2009-08-24T02:38:00.000-07:00

I have been busy lately with my trades, the recent OpEx feels quite different than the previous ones...obviously the MMs game plan has changed.

Lesson learned is to take Option Pain as a guide...it is not exactly the holy grail for option trades..... but it is better than nothing.
From my observation some stocks in my previous posts managed to hit option pain about 5 to 7 days before OpEx day.

FSLR was a notable exception, with more than 20,000 puts....and it makes me wonder how are these MMs hedging their written puts? If that is not the case....some option sellers have lost a lot of money......

I started late on Friday and stayed away for the rest of the day...due to the huge gap up and partially due to my failure to find any decent trades with as minimal capital as possible.

Here is the game plan for the most part of next week, I think you will be lucky if SPX pulls back to 1009...which I doubt..... So, 1018 is still a buy if the opportunity presents itself. Frankly, I don't like this but that is the way it is... If you wanna bet this market will go below 1000...then good luck with you....its month end brother... Eventually...I am expecting SPX to hit 1040...since there is no resistance...."you heard me...loud and clear".

Long Watchlist: EXC, HES

Good luck with your trades.....do your own charting...you are a big boy now.

Trading Plan for Monday (17 August, 2009)

2009-08-16T03:54:00.000-07:00

Next week, the biggest event is OpEx so any of my trade decisions will be based on that.

SPY has not changed much and the general market is remaining cautious. I am expecting SPY to come close to between 98 - 99 by OpEx. After that, I think the market could be setting up for a month end rally.

Here are some ideas assuming that people don't do something stupid...lol..(yer know what I mean)

Trading Plan for Friday (14 August 2009)

2009-08-14T03:30:00.000-07:00

This OpEx is going to be a very close call with a high likelihood that SPY will stay close to 98 level. It is not going to be easy for a deeper pullback because a lot of idiots out there are buying a lot of puts....even some stocks which are supposed to be bearish have turned neutral.

Good luck with your trading, I don't think I can contribute much if I don't see a trend emerging.

Watchlist:
Longs: RIMM, FSLR
Shorts: RIG, RL

Trading Plan for Monday (August 10, 2009)

2009-08-10T05:08:00.000-07:00

What goes up will come down eventually, that is my believe for this market. There are small hints here and there towards Friday that is showing that this market will pullback.

Some of the prime suspects are: (as usual, I always show you the upside as well)
IWM

PNC

RIG

JPM

Trading Plan for Thursday (August 6, 2009)

2009-08-05T10:13:00.000-07:00

Have to say that there was a huge rally in the financials and I can see that there is more upside for this sector.

There seems to be some loss of momentum in the inflation trade, so I will only be watching this sector from a distance. In the meantime ...certain stocks in the tech sector are pulling back, names like FSLR, QCOM, AMZN....so will be wise to put this in your radar.

AMZN might probably stay close to 85, we shall see

PG could be a buy soon, watching this closely as well

Trading Plan for Friday (July 31, 2009)

2009-07-31T04:08:00.000-07:00

Yesterday was more like a gap up more than a rally. When that happened, I knew right away that trading the indexes will be like committing suicide. So high and low I was digging for suitable stocks to buy....but yer know I didn't like the setup for most except for the laggers like AMZN, NKE, XOM.

Even GS and OIH sucks! KO...grrr....made an outright U turn. Just wished I could just focus on one...

The market may have broken the record but I doubt many normal traders made big money in the big gap up.

The SPX trading plan moving forward looks more straightforward now. The dangerous part is if we break 973 and fall, so I will most likely try to search for stocks that pulls back.

On the fundamental side, it all depends on how many percent fund managers are invested and how much returns will stocks return to the fund. For instance, if companies can't afford to pay higher dividends then what fundamental reason is there to justify stock valuations at this level...?

I see that AMZN is free to go, however it all depends on the MM. It may chop around abit, we shall see.

Trading Plan (July 29, 2009)

2009-07-29T04:30:00.000-07:00

Yesterday was a difficult trading day, it looked as though there were some nice longs towards the end of the day....but my instincts have proven me right again. The MMs were trying to suck in as many bulls as they can and I am not one of them.

The pullback in energy and financials was offset with some relative strength in some tech and medical stocks.

Basically the market is currently in consolidation phase before the next big move. Picking stocks was like shooting crap yesterday...but overall. Some sectors are revealing a little bit of itself like
Precious Metal, OIH, Utilities. However, XOM and CVX are still holding up quite well despite a decline in Crude Prices....these two big brothers are big components of the DOW...if they fall...then that would have significant impact on the DOW.

The OIH chart says the trend is slightly bearish. Today and tomorrow shall be key to see where things are heading. As of now, Crude is down another dollar. Note the multiple layers of support available to OIH, technically speaking the target price is 100. However, if the number of puts rise...perhaps the target price could be more than 100 by OpEx...lol

I am also watching GS, we shall see if the bulls will appear near the 20 MA.

Buyers appeared when AMZN touched the 50 MA

Don't you just love H&S pattern, these patterns have a tendency to behave the opposite in our time. Ignore what the books teach you and keep QCOM on your radar.

In summary, I see that the tech sector and possibly some financials are setting up for a rally soon...could be either Thursday or Friday. Any pullbacks are buying opportunities.....it is just a matter of where or when the rally will trigger.

Trading Plan for Monday (Juy 27, 2009)

2009-07-27T05:36:00.000-07:00

Friday was supposed to be a nice trading day, ...I kinda lost focus on my goals due to some unforeseen reasons...But hey, Im a human not a machine.....lol...

There is still plenty of time for this market to hang around this high levels...potentially go higher or sideways for a while to draw the bulls in before MMs decide on a pullback before OpEx. So the safest way is to go with the flow....

It pays to stay alert on any move by SPX from now on....this index has huge potential to make big moves.

Crude Oil still have some room to go with a target price of between 70 - 72.5, we should see some resistance beginning from 70.

OIH chart still looks bullish, I am only planning to daytrade this ETF.

There was a headline on CNBC last week on high volume algorithmic trading using powerful computers...I try to avoid stocks that use those tools if I see them not behaving well consistently each day.

Eventually, those MMs will lose due to lack of market participation....IMHO. Simply because they will be moving the market on their own. Of course there are some stocks that behave nicely and still use algorithmic trading....and these stocks have credibility and creates trust among all market participants....

Bigger Picture (July 24, 2009)

2009-07-24T05:13:00.000-07:00

Now that the major resistance has been taken out on the SPX, I will be looking forward to SPX making it to the 1000 level with optimism. Mark my words, once we get past 1000...there is little to stop this market from getting to about 1200. The rest of it is down to where is the capital coming from for propping up this market further..?

As a trader or investor, if you are still looking forward to short this market...then I guess you need to reevaluate your strategy. Yes a healthy market need short sellers...but again...short selling still needs some smart investment decisions to be profitable.

For those who missed this move, don't worry there will be pullbacks....it is the MMs job to make stock prices attractive to investors....they need us....and we need them...like "symbiosis".

Trading Plan for Thursday (July 2009)

2009-07-23T02:23:00.000-07:00

SLB, DO are reporting earnings within these two days. So I will continue to watch OIH and in particular RIG and SLB.

One word of advice, if you wanna get bearish on these...don't hold your options overnight....else this is going to turn bullish as we head into OpEx. Usually I do not advice people to hold options for more than 2 days if there is no trend.

Trading Plan for Wednesday (July 22, 2009)

2009-07-21T20:19:00.000-07:00

Everybody is watching Crude Oil as an indicator for a possible market direction.

So tomorrow, I will focus on OIH due to a confluence of events related to Crude.

Trading Plan for Thursday (July 16, 2009)

2009-07-15T20:20:00.000-07:00

Update2: I know, I know...it is playing out...but even I lack guts...lol Would you have shorted yesterday...?
Update: Alrite stay Neutral, project the up arrow yourself....lol. I'm now focused on daytrading..so whichever direction the market moves...I won't get hurt.

Hehehe...what a funny rally. Remember, when the market gets too bearish on TV...you have to learn to be on the alert for a rally. Even things like Consumer Discretionary had a nice rally, analyst have been quite bearish on this sector....so that they get to buy low and sell higher.

As for my stance on the market right now, its Neutral to slight bearish heading into OpEx...depending on the stock. If you see SPY flat, look hard beneath the surface ...because there is always something going on.

Here is a chart of the SPX, the flat scenario will play out if some oversold sectors like commodities rally to cover the retreat of some tech and transports. Neutral on the financials for now.

Trading Plan for Wednesday (July 15, 2009)

2009-07-15T01:20:00.000-07:00

The markets continue to wait for a new direction, sensing this...I turned off my screens for the most part of yesterday. The aim for this tape action was pretty clear...

For the rest of the week, I am expecting small movements in the market. So, I am taking this opportunity to free my mind and relax.

However, I am watching a few stocks in the morning and will only enter into a trade if the opening looks appealing.

Expecting a pullback for FDX to between 50.5 - 53

I am actually quite impressed that AMZN, OIH, GS, POT have all met my targets.
OIH could go to 100 if call to put ratio stayed more or less the same....As for AMZN...nah...not playing. GS is not shortable...IMHO, not risking too much capital.

FSLR....hmmm....maybe 150 -155
MON...erm...maybe 75-80
GDX...maybe to 38-39

May seem like a funny post...but I think that is about it....lol...will add more if I see anything coming. ;)

Trading Plan for Tuesday (July 14, 2009)

2009-07-14T04:37:00.000-07:00

I am expecting a little pullback for QCOM....see how it plays out...Will start from a Neutral stance.

Profit or reputation...? Technically GS should be at around 145 on OpEx. The picture for JPM is more or less the same....

Trading Plan for Monday (July 13, 2009)

2009-07-10T17:28:00.000-07:00

Goldman is pretty close to where it is suppose to be by OpEx. That aside, many things could happen in 4 days.

POT...hmmm...a lot of bears could get hurt soon IMHO. This stock could go up from here or:

OIH going as planned.

AMZN going as planned too

JPM will likely trade in a very tight range, I think its a buy if it gets below 32.

Trading Plan for Thursday (July 9, 2009)

2009-07-08T15:32:00.000-07:00

Update 2 - I am looking at the market with a Neutral perspective from here...
Update 1 - Supplementary comments: I know this page has enjoyed a record breaking hit, but folks please don't forget that the likelihood for you to lose money is high if you hold calls or puts into options expiration. So don't be an "idiot". Continue to read what the market is telling you through your charts each day ya! .

Today was a nice trading day for bulls and bears! Its earnings season and OpEx is just around the corner, so be careful not to get sucked into the volatility trap.

Looking at the SPY chart, I still don't see any concrete change in trend despite the late day bounce.
The MACD is indicating that the market might rollover again soon after a little bit more upside....Unless we see an improvement in upside momentum.

Going long from today's low is quite correct to ride along with that tiny upside....IMHO. But don't forget to take your profits fast if you see the scenario mapping out.

On the contrary, I see OIH as a possible bullish setup. Here is a possible reason....to back up my analysis:
We know that OpEx is 9 days away...so MMs will eventually find a way to book their profits. They cannot close below 88, or else they will make a loss....So I sense that they will most likely whip OIH a bit before you see their true intentions which will most likely be between 94 - 100...that is if the calls to puts ratio stays around here...

This is my first attempt on GS, based on current call to put ratio. GS could end up between 140- 145 by OpEx. Remember these guys are the best, so some whipping around is expected...but knowing some odds does help.

As for AMZN, this stock could go to 80 if based on todays call to put ration by OpEx.

So you see, don't get too bearish too soon. I got a feeling that SPX might not break 870 too soon...even though it did...the rally following that is going to be really powerful....maybe after OpEx...lol Alrite enough for today, saving up my energy for the next day.

Going long ONLY IF (July 09, 2009)

2009-07-08T12:20:00.000-07:00

Watching GS and IWM for any signs of bounce, of course from now on all rallies should be sold...at the right levels.

Trading Plan for Wednesday (July 8, 2009)

2009-07-08T03:40:00.001-07:00

I was very disappointed yesterday...not so much of the market but more about the intermittent connection disruptions in my internet connection. It sucks! But still, I rather not take the risk to plunge into a trade to stay green.

The MMs are so good at keeping the SPX above 880. As mentioned if it weren't for the financials and some rally going on elsewhere....SPX would have been below 880 today. We just have to see what happens next, no point guessing.

I think the last piece of the puzzle could be the financials, transports and technology. The selling for the energy sector is more or less done...provided that it does not break down from here....that is a possibility too!...lol

Here are the charts of the Dow and the XLE Energy ETF....
XLE has retraced 50 %, text book wise...this sector could bounce. We just have to watch and see.

One final word...if you see SPX going sideways...do watch the VIX ya.

Trading Plan for Tuesday (July 07, 2009)

2009-07-07T05:43:00.000-07:00

Well, we did have our snap back rally and now SPX has resistance above at 907, 913-920 with plenty of support below.

AMZN could be in for a tight ride up.

OIH getting to overbought soon.

FDX triangle scenario is mapping out.

Trading Plan for Monday (July 6, 2009)

2009-07-06T06:00:00.000-07:00

I think SPY is in a position for a snap back rally at around 88, no smart bears ever short from here unless it is a day trade.

Here is the 3 month chart for a better view.

Watching QCOM, I think this stock has room to move to the upside or downside.
Earnings on 22 July 2009

Potential Ideas to invest in (June 6, 2009)

2009-07-06T04:30:00.000-07:00

During Obama's visit to Russia, American companies are announcing their investments in Russia, could be short term dip for long term gains...?

Companies involved include:
DE $500 mil, PEP $4 Bil, BA with VSMPO-Avisma worth...?
XOM, CVX, COP, AA

BAC could be a cheap investment...? After being beaten down for the past year....its all about "Research...Research....Research" about any outstanding risk involved before committing some capital.
Top 10 Wealth Managers
Rank Bank Assets
1 Bank of America 1,501
2 UBS 1,393
3 Citi 1,320
4 Wells Fargo 1,000
5 Credit Suisse 612
6 JPMorgan 552
7 Morgan Stanley 522
8 HSBC 352
9 Deutsche Bank 231
10 Goldman Sachs 215

Well we will just have to watch those charts...

The week ahead (June 3, 2009)

2009-07-03T02:19:00.000-07:00

The day has been filled with mixed sentiment, overall the market needs to reveal a little more. Some traders could be away for the long weekend, as you can see there is a lack of selling/ buying in the 5 minute chart. So what will Monday be...?

Current Hot Topic that I am watching : Naked Short Selling Rules

I can only see two possible scenarios:
1. A snap back rally
2. Another gap down or selloff on Monday due to traders coming back from their holidays.
3. No buyers or sellers stepping into the market...hence flat day.

To turn the sentiment of the market from bullish to bearish is going to take some time, many traders are still afraid to short the market for fear of a snap back rally.

Take POT as an example. If the MM wants to play hard ball and confuse the market, how can they gain the trust of the market...? Will we see this in the Dow or Nasdaq....?

Another example is MA

In summary, the bulls and the bears could still be in a tug of war...Hence I will just take this a day at a time.

SnapShort of Job Numbers

2009-07-02T05:58:00.000-07:00

Just keeping my personal records of Job numbers for future reference

Private Sector = - 415,000

Natural Resources & Mining = - 8,000
Construction = - 79,000
Manufacturing = - 136,000

Durable goods = - 112,000
Non-durable goods = - 24,000

Services = - 244,000

Wholesale Trade = - 15,900
Retail Trade = - 21,000
Transportation = - 13,900
Utilities = - 200
Information & Media = - 21,000
Financial Svcs & Real Estate = - 27,000
Professional & Business Svcs = - 118,000
Education = + 14,900
Health Svcs = + 18,600
Leisure = - 18,000

Government = - 52,000

Friday Trading Plan (July 02, 2009)

2009-07-01T20:08:00.000-07:00

The market is mostly up except for materials and energy and tech. This is like a pullback to 880 level or lower except that weaknesses in some sectors are offset by some other undervalued sectors. So it is not surprising to see SPX above 900. Unless sectors like Financials, Consumer and Utilities start selling off like mad...then maybe we could see SPX below 880.

So Im just planning to follow the market.

FDX had another fake out, to me it is still pretty much in the down channel.

DRI has now evolved into a channel, just follow along. NKE has also evolved into something similar, took my profits early to see what is next.

AMZN as expected, Im neither too bullish nor bearish on this stock. Breaking above 85.3 will change the entire game

OIH is enjoying a nice layer of support, I try to stay out of this sector if possible. Most earnings are at the end of July.

Updated Plan for Tuesday (June 30, 2009)

2009-06-29T15:59:00.000-07:00

Updates for Wednesday:
I traded the SPY today, to catch the big move of most of the component stocks.
The watch list still remains in play, technically nothing has changed much. Most of today's move was due to energy.

FDX gapped up and sold off only to end the day almost unchanged. I believe FDX could continue trading in a tight range or reveal its real trend soon.

AMZN is showing similar behavior, IMHO it is still too early to tell which direction this stock is going.

MA is a very much in control by the MMs and could be in for some choppy trading if the downtrend does not resume.

The real money is usually made in the direction of a trend. However, the market is still Neutral for now....best not to be too bullish or bearish.

July could either be a down month or a theta burning month. FDX, AMZN is not at extreme highs for a decent short...any downside would have been surported by at at least 2 layers of MA. Very dangerous market for bulls and bears indeed

Made a decent profit on DRI, see where this thing is going next.

Keep an eye on NKE

MA still need to reveal more

FDX likes to form triangles, let see how this playout...but usually a nice trade will surface within 15 days...lol

AMZN could be setting up for a range trading environment.

Trading Plan for Next Week (June 29, 2009)

2009-06-27T05:48:00.000-07:00

Well, a new month is about the begin I am looking forward to it with optimism.

The DOW is currently in consolidation mode and the Nasdaq has a little more room to go before it challenges its previous high.

I do not see any solid trend in commodities yet and a lot of this is due to Crude Oil and the Dollar.

Just a couple of trading ideas.

MA is still caught in its descending channel, be prepared for a resumption of the trend or a possible trend change.

SFD is trending up, the delta is pretty high for a decent trade. Try buying closer to the 20 MA.

AMZN still have some room to go, however...if you see choppy action in a tight range...be cautious. As for me, I will just wait for a h/s or triple top to form.

FDX

NKE could still be in a position to retrace judging by the spike in volume.

I am also watching HON, this company is reporting earnings on 7/27/2009.

Trading Plan for Friday (June 26, 2009)

2009-06-26T03:42:00.000-07:00

The market had a nice rally yesterday, making its way up to just underneath the 20 EMA on the DOW. I prefer to look at the DOW because if I include technology names....surely the SPX will be above the 20 EMA. So technically, we still have some overhead resistance above us and this means that the DOW could still go either way.

POT chart stays more or less the same...but I think I will stand aside for now because it has just revised its earnings forecast....let things cool down a little

While OIH will most like encounter some resistance at 101.9

Despite all these publicity about huge call buying on Financials, I will just analyze the chart as it is. A lot of resistance levels above us for JPM ...IMHO

There could be some tight trading if we go up for IBM, of course going back down will be easier.

FSLR, just following the technicals

Of course I have never forgotten about Michael. Cool video of a performance by Michael and Britney

Trading Plan for Thursday (June 25, 2009)

2009-06-24T22:14:00.000-07:00

The stock market is still in mixed trading. So I will continue aiming for specific stocks.
Overall, I didn't like the action in POT, FCX, GS on the long side for today...the gap up just took away half the potential profits.

Tell me if your puts for GS, POT are making lots of money if you bought OTM put options...lol? I know nobody does.....Though the only trade that worked was FCX....but I stayed on the sidelines.

All comes down to what the MM wants to do....the time will come when there will be a better entry...so staying patient.

I am sticking to the same charts for FCX, POT and I am staying neutral on GS.

I like how IBM is setup

NKE is currently on my watch list, shorting at this level could be suicide...but we shall see

Updates: NKE revenue and profits fell, will be watching this stock closely now

Trading Plan for Wednesday (June 24, 2009)

2009-06-23T15:09:00.000-07:00

Im not in particular interested in trading SPY at the moment due to such a mixed market.

But I think I might have found some gems, Ag could be about to or is making a U turn....But there is also plenty of opportunity on the downside.

POT, to make things a little interesting...Im going to let you figure out where the support is if things breakdown...lol

MOS

GS is currently trading in a channel, watch for any sign of a double bottom...but yer know...anything can happen during FOMC.

FCX could make its way back to 50

Bond Factor (June 23, 2009)

2009-06-23T07:37:00.000-07:00

I do not know whether bonds are rallying due to this one time event or for the rest of July. But it helps to know where some of the money is going.

I don't believe in inverse Head and Shoulders....do you...?

Trading Plan for Tuesday (June 23, 2009)

2009-06-22T22:35:00.000-07:00

Sometime ago, I set a target of SPX 896 for any descend. The target has been met, so right now I will sit back a little and watch out for the next trend.

FOMC days are usually a tricky event, you don't wanna get overly bearish or bullish. This pullback is just plain and simple...MMs are preparing for the coming earnings season and it is perfect timing to take profits for their half yearly reports.

FCX

OIH

JPM

Trading Plan for Monday (June 20, 2009)

2009-06-19T16:21:00.000-07:00

BBY

FCX

Game is not over for OIH yet, Crude Oil has not broken important support lines.

SPX and recommendations moving forward (June 16, 2009)

2009-06-16T04:45:00.000-07:00

Hope you enjoyed my lottery picks, Im sure all picks worked fine...lol

All in all, I am currently neutral about this market. It all depends on whether SPX will stay below 920 for at least 3 days. So I am expecting SPX to trade in the range between 920 - 955 if this sideways action continues. However...if the market suddenly resumes its downtrend my target shall be 896 before we see a bounce.

BNI is nicely set up for another potential trade.

Trading Plan for Monday (June 15, 2009)

2009-06-15T03:15:00.000-07:00

BBY, ADBE are reporting earnings tomorrow; I will be watching the charts closely.

Just for fun, I noticed that ES likes to form double bottoms. See if this pattern plays out.

A possible trade is setting up for AMZN, Im neutral on the direction...but the current trend is down.

BNI. This little devil is still trading in a range, it has some potential for a decent trade...IMHO

FCX, needless to say...sideways or down..

GS just a guess.

ICE

V is setting up nicely for a possible long play soon.

POT, a retreat to possibly 111-112 is imminent

OIH...I don't like the setup but just chuck in in anyway.

Now who says there are no possible trades...I almost got insane looking at the charts because there are so many possibilities. Pick your lottery.

Trading Plan for Friday (June 12, 2009)

2009-06-11T13:47:00.000-07:00

Stocks had a massive rally today led by commodities.

The financials and transports are still in range trading mode, while OIH is quite near heavy resistance for now. I noticed some selling in stocks like V, MA, Solars and RTH and some Chinese stocks.

SPX pulled back to 944 by the end of the day, I think it will be hard for SPX to stay above 950 for too long. Therefore, my bias is for the market to continue trading sideways or pullback a little.

For Friday, my advice is to be cautious with the market heading into the weekend. If you wish to trade options... try going for JULY.

If OIH hits 120 I will be quite suprised, I see key resistance between 116.5 - 120. So I expect OIH to go sideways or come down to the nearest support.

As for POT, it is facing a formidable multiyear resistance at 120. I am also expecting this stock to trade sideways or go down.

XOM also facing some formidable resistance at 74 which originated from 2008

In Conclusion: Don't bet on these stocks to go any higher soon, expect them to continue trading sideways or pullback a little

I see some potential in SLB. I think this stock could hit 67 but first it has to get past 62

Another stock with a little bit more upside if the bulls still have the will power is X. But it will take some time for this stock get the capability to stay at 45 and maintain its price there

Trading Plan for Thursday(Updated - June 11, 2009)

2009-06-11T03:08:00.000-07:00

POT

If you dislike POT you can try MOS

FCX, this is a good setup for a breakout towards 64 but be cautious of a fake out. A short is a risky trade but can be quite rewarding. I don't like the number of support below. Could go sideways to burn theta though.

ICE, be cautious with this one starting from now.

As for BNI, I expect any up move to be choppy or violent from now on. Still bullish if it stays above 73.78.

Analysis of RIG (July 10, 2009)

2009-06-09T16:55:00.000-07:00

End of Day Update: Last Price at EOD is 83.95, geez...this is insane...this stock is certainly going to 93 or 80 by OpEx....game is not over yet.

Rig is about to make at least a 3 dollar move

Imagine if you were an MM which do you prefer? The image shows potential profits or losses for a range of strike prices, the odds are for RIG to close at 80 or below....However...would MMs be crazy enough to push prices up to 83 - 93?....Sounds insane right...?

As a final note, don't get silly and buy a lot of puts on this stock...MMs have the ability to change their targets at any time...

Trading Plan for Wednesday, Thursday (June 10, 2009)

2009-06-09T16:24:00.000-07:00

Surprisingly the connection is working fine.

OpEx is fast approaching and I have been watching two bullish fertilizer stocks. I am expecting a pullback soon. There are 10 more days to OpEx so at the moment just go with the flow.

POT

MOS

ICE

Trading Plan for Monday (June 07, 2009)

2009-06-06T11:47:00.000-07:00

Updates: There is a tug of war going on in the Dollar, I shall be a spectator in the commodity markets until I see a clear winner. There is no need to be a "HERO" in these markets.

Let me say that, I actually hate to be whipped around especially while trading the SPY. So I am planning to try and be in control by going into individual stocks.

The dollar is retesting a key resistance, Im all eyes to see if it manages to climb above it.

ICE had a nice pullback on Friday, would be nice to see this stock pullback a little more. This is setting up a for nice long entry, watch the volume and price action.

Another stock that I am watching is V, staying neutral on this one.

BNI still remains on my radar, if you see a big gap up, be prepared to sell the rips. What we want here is a gradual ascend not a rip you off kind of trade ya....lol

Whoohoo...more discoveries....STT could potentially hit 52.5 if this stock keeps going. Again if it gaps up big...sell the rips.

Friday Trading Plan (June 05 , 2009)

2009-06-04T13:33:00.000-07:00

Here you go again, no wonder they are called "bulls".... Anyway, that is how the word "bull - dozer" came along.

There was some selling in other sectors today, some stocks were even unchanged in my watchlist. If SPX is going to breach 1000, other sectors need to participate in this rally.

Tomorrow we have an employment report at 8.30am. So we will see whether there will be a continuation of this rally or a gap down. However based on the mentality of most MMs...I think they are going to try to breach 949. If not it is possible that the trading range be maintained between 940 - 949 to burn theta over the weekend. This is bad for bulls and bears...hate it...if that happens.

The big question mark now is, where is the dollar heading to...Gold miners did not perform as well today...notice that most gold miners did not make a higher high. Instead most went sideways from late mornings to the end of the day....I smell doubt here

BUCY looks like another buying opportunity on pullbacks, possible target is 34-36.

BNI is setting up for a beautiful move soon.

For those who are a fan of GS, notice it took 12 days for a decent breakout. 151- 160 will be a formidable resistance zone...so I am expecting a pullback. Buy on dips.

Thursday Trading Plan (June 04, 2009)

2009-06-03T13:07:00.000-07:00

I am making this post earlier because I know what I want....lol.

First thing in the morning, watch the dollar. There will be an ECB announcement which should clear any doubts on the Dollar.

We could get a gap down tomorrow, 913 could act as support. Perhaps a bounce will happen from there. If we rally from where we are now....I suspect we won't get far if we don't get above 949....Then we are in for some choppy trading session.

JPM could be setting up for a decent buy.

A lot that is to happen in the Gold market depends on the dollar. I think you should get confirmation from the dollar and gold futures before you proceed with GDX. The last minute buying could be from over enthusiastic buyers or short covering.

Whether the rally in Agriculture Commodities continues also depends on the dollar..IMHO

Wednesday Trading Plan (June 03, 2009)

2009-06-03T02:37:00.000-07:00

Tuesday was a consolidation day with mix signals on all stocks across the board. Key financial stocks like JPM had a massive pullback due to news that the FED is increasing capital requirement for banks that want to pay back TARP.

Based on technicals, SPX is now in overbought territory and is due for a pullback....However, the bulls are trying to push their way above a key resistance zone between 940 - 949. I didn't use SPY because the data is not that accurate.

As long as price action stays above 200 MA, the bullish scenario is still in play and the next target if there is any breakout will be 966.

The Russell has more wiggle room than the SPY, small caps are easier to manipulate...perhaps that could be the reason.

If this market continues to whipsaw, you wanna focus on one stock at a time.

NKE is setting up to be possible short....if it gaps down then there is nothing much you can do...lol. I do see some dip buying at the end of the day as well...so it may try to get above resistance.

Monday Trading Plan (June 01, 2009)

2009-05-31T23:55:00.000-07:00

Most of the trades this week will be determined by the dollar. As of this morning, the DXY has dropped another point....

Analysing the chart of SPY shows that the bulls still have the will power to push this market higher. I don't recommend you holding shorts overnight...coz if the bulls push this market above that 200 MA it is going to get stuck up there for a while. Buying on dips and shorting intraday are better strategies in this scenario.

I think copper is on the rise again, time to take a look at FCX again. Buy on dips.

I will also be keeping an eye on TBT

I have no doubts that Gold is going to attempt to break out sooner or later above 1000. Most of the gold miners report their earnings in mid July, so there is still plenty of room to run. Perhaps June could be a bullish month for gold...we shall see.

Listen to Good Things she has to say

2009-05-30T02:26:00.000-07:00

I am aware that some of you are facing a hard time trading this market because it is trendless...
in case you were attempting to give up...well don't.

Patience is the game in this market and if you keep working hard eventually you will be rewarded with a nice trade.

Well, here is one of my idols....Mariah Carey. I admire her for her openness and honesty during the interview. Bare in mind that she had to face many difficulties in her life and "suicide" has never crossed her mind.

Friday Trading Plan (May 29, 2009)

2009-05-28T23:52:00.000-07:00

Greetings, yesterday's action on most stocks was quite choppy. And the breakout from the trendline was slow and lack conviction.

Lets look at JPM as a study, notice that the prices are above their moving averages as compared to previous prices in the historical data....this is bullish. But you have to be careful that this could be a fake out before any eventual breakout. Who knows the price could go back below that trendline...

I see JPM going sideways or up in the short term.

Looking at the SPY chart, I don't see how far this market can go unless there is an attempt to break above SPY 91.91.

It just makes me wonder how on earth is the market going to do that with OIH and Nasdaq getting overbought...? I suspect some other sectors have to join in the rally

Thursday Trading Plan (May 28, 2009)

2009-05-27T17:42:00.000-07:00

The market is behaving as expected.... As long as SPX 875 holds, I won't be holding any shorts overnight.

We had a big rally on Tuesday due to technicalities and the ascend was really steep.
So naturally the market corrected itself today on a pullback to the 20 MA. IMHO, this is a second buying opportunity for the bulls. If Fund Managers decide to do some month end window dressing, I am expecting a move up either tomorrow or Friday.

Here is a chart of SPY, to the downside...we have support at 88.45. On the other hand, any move up will be a big gap up or a slow grind up.

As for the Financials, I am looking at JPM for clues.

As for the DOW, the transports are not doing very well. But you gotta give that Triangle a benefit of a doubt because it could break out either way.

The rails have been quite straight forward trades, unlike commodity related stocks that are trying to act strong...and sometimes whipsaw like hell.

Look at the minute charts for these two stocks

UNP

BNI

Consumer Staples still strong (May 22, 2009)

2009-05-22T05:03:00.000-07:00

Consumer Staples has not had any major correction since this rally started....I just wonder when that is going to happen....? This is by far the most bullish sector depending on the underlying stocks.

Trading Plan for Friday (May 22, 2009)

2009-05-21T23:26:00.000-07:00

This market is still holding up quite well above SPX 875, I am neutral on the market despite some analyst calling for a run to 1000 or a deep correction to 840 or 800.

It is pretty clear why the market is holding up here, the government is only going to accept TARP fund repayment after June 8...and the financials need to meet their expectations.

Overall, the market is making use of the long weekend to correct itself from overbought conditions. Which is positive as we approach the month end...typically we could see some window dressing activities soon.

The chart of SPY still looks pretty murky to me, perhaps there will be a trade once stochastics get above 20 with some volume. Frankly, I think the double bottom is too small...its just an "S" size. I prefer to see at least an "XL" before I commit some capital....lol

As for JPM, the game plan is more or less the same....except for some ambiguity on a lower high or a follow through above that resistance-trendline. The bulls will hold the fort at 34.

GDX is approaching a key resistance soon, time to get cautious with your trades. Im expecting some sort of sideways action or a pullback. If it gets above 42.82, the next target is 46.52.