GS, RIG (Sept 24, 2009)

I have been busy trading the indexes lately, as mentioned when you are at such high levels in the S&P...you cannot afford to be complacent. Trust me, I have gone through more than 100 charts and I did not like the overbought conditions at all. So I played safe by playing the SPY....

Back by popular demand, here are couple ideas for this OpEx....all can change if the market gets too bearish....

GS is a buy if it ever hits 175, usually my forecast for GS never works...will see this time.


Watch out for buy signals if RIG hits 80, I misplaced the calculations so will do with just the chart.

Funny Money too needs to be profitable (Sept 23, 2009)

Seeing a lot of funny money in action...? Getting frustrated with stationary market action?
Don't worry, funny money too will one day realize that what they do won't be profitable for them.

There is this perception that, organizations that use funny money to pump this market up can keep doing this forever until the market reaches the moon.... lol. I don't believe so!

Imagine if you were a market maker (MM) trying to get the so called "money on the sidelines" to join in the rally and then sell at higher prices....What will MM be feeling now if no "money on the sidelines" wants to participate at these prices...? Wait until next year? What will MMs do next...?

Hah....there is no need to guess...its just pure common sense.....I see MMs will eventually be forced to "bring prices down to more acceptable levels".

So folks be cautious, don't get overly bullish....for MMs (bull tards) to remain profitable....They need the market to participate...or else they will just be wasting their money propping this market up.

In the coming months, if the market continue like this. I think the options market and stock market will experience significant decrease in volume. When that happens, funny money will have to adopt a new approach.

SPX fibonacci retracement level confluence

This is a chart of SPX showing a confluence of fibonacci retracement levels from the highs of Oct 2008 - the lows of March 2009...and fibonacci projection levels from the lows of march 2009.
This area of confluence is between 1070 to 1115 with price resistance levels at 1095 and 1109.

Most technical traders pay attention to these levels and I am expecting a test of these levels soon and will be watching out for the next major retracement to about 919.

SPX Strategy (Sept 17, 2009)

Tiring week, with so many things going on...whoosh.

This market is getting more and more dangerous, even though rallies did happen...but I think the gains per day is too quick. If they are hoping that people will chase the trade....they are very wrong. What used to be 5 day handle rise has been compressed into a 1 day rise. At these levels if you are going long...you cannot afford to be complacent.

Here is a chart of the SPX, it appears that somewhere near Oct 01 - 05 the market could present an opportunity...whether that will be the top or bottom ...hah that I do not know.




The next level of resistance is around 1109.5....that aside we must remember that most of the overhead supply has been sold off and I do not write off the possibility that the market can still go higher. On the other hand, any sell off could be so fast that you will not have a chance to get your hands on the sell trigger. What is the whole point Market Makers/ Stock Gods...? This is no fun.

I am focusing now on conservative swing trade setups and do less trading if not necessary.

SPX Targets moving forward (Sept 11, 2009)

There is fresh energy coming into the markets, not necessary fresh money. Traders coming back on vacation took the opportunity to buy aggressively when the market dipped to 995...and hence a rally ensued with greedy looking green candles...

Based on the technicals on the SPX chart, there is a confluence of "Fibonacci level - Weekly Pivot Point Level and Resistance Lines" between 1047.16.22 - 1056.30. Note that if tomorrow... SPX goes above 1047, it is likely to attempt 1053 as pointed out by Fujisan.

The next key area to watch if 1056.30 is breached with conviction is 1073.67-1078.98 another confluence of "Fibonacci level - Weekly Pivot Point Level - Weekly 100 EMA" between . That perhaps won't happen tomorrow.

Here is the weekly chart of the SPX:

Smart Money is Selling (Sept 11, 2009)

So are you getting more bullish with today's market action?

Here is just an idea of what some smart money have been up to:


MSFT


CHK - Bullish on Natural Gas??


GOOG

Trading Plan for Thursday (Sept 10, 2009)

Interesting up trend in the markets for the past few days.....but an important test is coming in the next 2 to 3 days....

Here is a chart of TLT, note the positive divergence in MACD and the buy signal. I think there could be a bounce in the bonds and if it rises above the 20 EMA, we could see the markets halt or slide a little. The ideal target for a bounce is around 92.33 but if we see volume coming in on the bonds then this could go far.

UUP (Sept 9, 2009)

CMED (Sept 3, 2009)

This stock has been beaten down to March lows, I would be watching this stock from now on for any increase in buying volume...The first green shoot was registered yesterday.

Watch the China and Brazil (01 Sept, 2009)

Feeling frustrated with static markets or lack of decent trade setups...? Who isn't...lol

September is usually bearish for stocks....but for these few years....I wouldn't be counting on the S&P to make any decent corrections for market participants to get in....anyway we shall see.

I think right now, emerging markets is a better play to watch out for the next swing trade. Partly because there is less interference from the government and they can behave more naturally.

Check out these two charts for PBR and CHL....beautiful aren't it?