Copper, Base Metals (May 24, 2010)

Copper and Base Metals daily charts are showing some divergence.

Usually this means a big move is coming, in a bear market this type of setups could end up as a bull trap.

On the other hand, if in fact the uptrend is still intact....then this is a buy signal.

SPX - possible range trading ahead (May 23, 2010)

Option activity on the SPX is indicating a possible consolidation week.

In one of the scenario that I analysed, we could see trading somewhere near to SPX 1100. All indications point to some form of volatility squeeze play. So keep an eye any rapid decline on the VIX.

On any directional moves, it is still fairly early to tell.

Bearishnes is still in the air (May 23, 2010)

It feels like there are a lot of bearish stocks out there. From europe to emerging markets, there is not the slightest hint of bullishness on the horizon just yet.

Any bullishness in equities will most likely be driven by hope and optimism rather than fundamentals. Sharp Rallies IMHO should be viewed as potential bull traps.

Here are some charts to show you where some of the opportunities are:

PBR has formed a giant Head and Shoulders.

Fundamentally, this stock has more downside when you see head lines like
"Petrobras board OKs massive hike in share issuance"



On the European end, the TED spread is not looking too good either. US equities has all along tolerated the TED spread during the recent melt up....I just wonder what is in store this time?

If we consider only US equities, money is still not coming out of US bonds either. Interest rates will most likely stay low as long as it needs to be... There could still be some upside for TLT, watch out for more selloffs in the equity market.

As for GLD, there is nothing bearish in the chart just yet. The recent decline could be due to selling ahead of European holidays. Just need to see what happens when they come back.

Of course, there is always the "World Cup 2010" from 11 June - 11 July. Will these fund managers take a long vacation? Just hope they are not only keeping their eye on the ball! ;)

We must remember that short selling equities may not be the right strategy for the whales/bears to get the best prices in equities....the way I see it...the most effective strategy for them is to move their money into treasuries and assets like gold temporarily.

chaunceyherbie's survey

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SPX downside risk (May 21, 2010)

I spent the night looking through the charts of major SPX components that pose the most risk in this market environment.


AAPL still pose some downside risk due to lack of consolidation areas below current price.


The rally for JPM starting from JULY was due to optimism for improving earnings. I think there is still a lot of news that has yet to be factored in to this stock. If it breaks below 37, 32 is the obvious target.


XOM, is probably going to retest those lows.



So you see, there is still a lot of downside risk. I wouldn't know where the bottom for this selloff is...but am not writing off a retest of somewhere close to 1036.

SPX observations (May 18, 2010

SPX made a hammer candle stick pattern yesterday. Not sure if this is indicating a possible trend change...but I will start looking for any signs of higher low that could lead to a channel in the short term.

Pure Manipulation (May 10, 2010)

What rally in the SPX? This sudden spike in price amounts to market manipulation... Checkout the pre-market volumes on some key stocks, AAPL price rose by 15.64 dollars with volumes of just 103,475?
CRM rose by 4.18 dollars with just 250 shares traded?