Trading Plan for Monday (31 August, 2009)

The key point I will be watching next week is the US dollar....which I believe is linked to more to the Yen. Whether the Japanese election results will result in further rally of the Yen or a sell the news event shall be answered pretty soon....

The chart of SPY shows that we have arrived at a significant pivot point yet again.....That is one reason why I exited all my positions. I am expecting either a huge rally or a pullback to somewhere between 101 - 102.

Whichever it is, I hope these MMs won't make life harder for market participants by gaping up/ down....Modern investors aren't stupid, they know the risk rewards before putting anymore money on the table.



I will assume a neutral stance going into next week. Here is my watch list:
SPY, HES, V, FLR

Market is still moving (August 27, 2009)

For the past 3 days the SPY gave the impression that the market is going sideways....That is true for some sectors but I still see some sectors moving.

Take RTH for example, being the most bearish sector of all...the bulls are continuing to squeeze the shorts.


How about Credit Card companies, aren't they bearish just a week ago....?


How about airlines, isn't there less passengers with the swine flu lurking around....?

There are tons of stocks out there if you could think of a bearish idea..people are bored and looking for somethings to do....no doubt they might get burned one day....But that is how risk management comes in....don't get too greedy and you should be alrite.

Trading Plan for Monday (August 24, 2009)

I have been busy lately with my trades, the recent OpEx feels quite different than the previous ones...obviously the MMs game plan has changed.

Lesson learned is to take Option Pain as a guide...it is not exactly the holy grail for option trades..... but it is better than nothing.
From my observation some stocks in my previous posts managed to hit option pain about 5 to 7 days before OpEx day.

FSLR was a notable exception, with more than 20,000 puts....and it makes me wonder how are these MMs hedging their written puts? If that is not the case....some option sellers have lost a lot of money......

I started late on Friday and stayed away for the rest of the day...due to the huge gap up and partially due to my failure to find any decent trades with as minimal capital as possible.

Here is the game plan for the most part of next week, I think you will be lucky if SPX pulls back to 1009...which I doubt..... So, 1018 is still a buy if the opportunity presents itself. Frankly, I don't like this but that is the way it is... If you wanna bet this market will go below 1000...then good luck with you....its month end brother... Eventually...I am expecting SPX to hit 1040...since there is no resistance...."you heard me...loud and clear".


Long Watchlist: EXC, HES

Good luck with your trades.....do your own charting...you are a big boy now.

Trading Plan for Monday (17 August, 2009)

Next week, the biggest event is OpEx so any of my trade decisions will be based on that.

SPY has not changed much and the general market is remaining cautious. I am expecting SPY to come close to between 98 - 99 by OpEx. After that, I think the market could be setting up for a month end rally.

Here are some ideas assuming that people don't do something stupid...lol..(yer know what I mean)

Trading Plan for Friday (14 August 2009)

This OpEx is going to be a very close call with a high likelihood that SPY will stay close to 98 level. It is not going to be easy for a deeper pullback because a lot of idiots out there are buying a lot of puts....even some stocks which are supposed to be bearish have turned neutral.

Good luck with your trading, I don't think I can contribute much if I don't see a trend emerging.

Watchlist:
Longs: RIMM, FSLR
Shorts: RIG, RL

Trading Plan for Monday (August 10, 2009)

What goes up will come down eventually, that is my believe for this market. There are small hints here and there towards Friday that is showing that this market will pullback.

Some of the prime suspects are: (as usual, I always show you the upside as well)
IWM


PNC


RIG


JPM

Trading Plan for Thursday (August 6, 2009)

Have to say that there was a huge rally in the financials and I can see that there is more upside for this sector.

There seems to be some loss of momentum in the inflation trade, so I will only be watching this sector from a distance. In the meantime ...certain stocks in the tech sector are pulling back, names like FSLR, QCOM, AMZN....so will be wise to put this in your radar.


AMZN might probably stay close to 85, we shall see

PG could be a buy soon, watching this closely as well