Trading Plan for Friday (July 31, 2009)

Yesterday was more like a gap up more than a rally. When that happened, I knew right away that trading the indexes will be like committing suicide. So high and low I was digging for suitable stocks to buy....but yer know I didn't like the setup for most except for the laggers like AMZN, NKE, XOM.

Even GS and OIH sucks! KO...grrr....made an outright U turn. Just wished I could just focus on one...

The market may have broken the record but I doubt many normal traders made big money in the big gap up.

The SPX trading plan moving forward looks more straightforward now. The dangerous part is if we break 973 and fall, so I will most likely try to search for stocks that pulls back.

On the fundamental side, it all depends on how many percent fund managers are invested and how much returns will stocks return to the fund. For instance, if companies can't afford to pay higher dividends then what fundamental reason is there to justify stock valuations at this level...?


I see that AMZN is free to go, however it all depends on the MM. It may chop around abit, we shall see.

Trading Plan (July 29, 2009)

Yesterday was a difficult trading day, it looked as though there were some nice longs towards the end of the day....but my instincts have proven me right again. The MMs were trying to suck in as many bulls as they can and I am not one of them.

The pullback in energy and financials was offset with some relative strength in some tech and medical stocks.

Basically the market is currently in consolidation phase before the next big move. Picking stocks was like shooting crap yesterday...but overall. Some sectors are revealing a little bit of itself like
Precious Metal, OIH, Utilities. However, XOM and CVX are still holding up quite well despite a decline in Crude Prices....these two big brothers are big components of the DOW...if they fall...then that would have significant impact on the DOW.

The OIH chart says the trend is slightly bearish. Today and tomorrow shall be key to see where things are heading. As of now, Crude is down another dollar. Note the multiple layers of support available to OIH, technically speaking the target price is 100. However, if the number of puts rise...perhaps the target price could be more than 100 by OpEx...lol


I am also watching GS, we shall see if the bulls will appear near the 20 MA.


Buyers appeared when AMZN touched the 50 MA

Don't you just love H&S pattern, these patterns have a tendency to behave the opposite in our time. Ignore what the books teach you and keep QCOM on your radar.


In summary, I see that the tech sector and possibly some financials are setting up for a rally soon...could be either Thursday or Friday. Any pullbacks are buying opportunities.....it is just a matter of where or when the rally will trigger.

Trading Plan for Monday (Juy 27, 2009)

Friday was supposed to be a nice trading day, ...I kinda lost focus on my goals due to some unforeseen reasons...But hey, Im a human not a machine.....lol...

There is still plenty of time for this market to hang around this high levels...potentially go higher or sideways for a while to draw the bulls in before MMs decide on a pullback before OpEx. So the safest way is to go with the flow....

It pays to stay alert on any move by SPX from now on....this index has huge potential to make big moves.


Crude Oil still have some room to go with a target price of between 70 - 72.5, we should see some resistance beginning from 70.


OIH chart still looks bullish, I am only planning to daytrade this ETF.



There was a headline on CNBC last week on high volume algorithmic trading using powerful computers...I try to avoid stocks that use those tools if I see them not behaving well consistently each day.

Eventually, those MMs will lose due to lack of market participation....IMHO. Simply because they will be moving the market on their own. Of course there are some stocks that behave nicely and still use algorithmic trading....and these stocks have credibility and creates trust among all market participants....

Bigger Picture (July 24, 2009)

Now that the major resistance has been taken out on the SPX, I will be looking forward to SPX making it to the 1000 level with optimism. Mark my words, once we get past 1000...there is little to stop this market from getting to about 1200. The rest of it is down to where is the capital coming from for propping up this market further..?

As a trader or investor, if you are still looking forward to short this market...then I guess you need to reevaluate your strategy. Yes a healthy market need short sellers...but again...short selling still needs some smart investment decisions to be profitable.

For those who missed this move, don't worry there will be pullbacks....it is the MMs job to make stock prices attractive to investors....they need us....and we need them...like "symbiosis".

Trading Plan for Thursday (July 2009)

SLB, DO are reporting earnings within these two days. So I will continue to watch OIH and in particular RIG and SLB.

One word of advice, if you wanna get bearish on these...don't hold your options overnight....else this is going to turn bullish as we head into OpEx. Usually I do not advice people to hold options for more than 2 days if there is no trend.

Trading Plan for Wednesday (July 22, 2009)

Everybody is watching Crude Oil as an indicator for a possible market direction.


So tomorrow, I will focus on OIH due to a confluence of events related to Crude.

Trading Plan for Thursday (July 16, 2009)

Update2: I know, I know...it is playing out...but even I lack guts...lol Would you have shorted yesterday...?
Update: Alrite stay Neutral, project the up arrow yourself....lol. I'm now focused on daytrading..so whichever direction the market moves...I won't get hurt.


Hehehe...what a funny rally. Remember, when the market gets too bearish on TV...you have to learn to be on the alert for a rally. Even things like Consumer Discretionary had a nice rally, analyst have been quite bearish on this sector....so that they get to buy low and sell higher.

As for my stance on the market right now, its Neutral to slight bearish heading into OpEx...depending on the stock. If you see SPY flat, look hard beneath the surface ...because there is always something going on.


Here is a chart of the SPX, the flat scenario will play out if some oversold sectors like commodities rally to cover the retreat of some tech and transports. Neutral on the financials for now.

Trading Plan for Wednesday (July 15, 2009)

The markets continue to wait for a new direction, sensing this...I turned off my screens for the most part of yesterday. The aim for this tape action was pretty clear...

For the rest of the week, I am expecting small movements in the market. So, I am taking this opportunity to free my mind and relax.

However, I am watching a few stocks in the morning and will only enter into a trade if the opening looks appealing.

Expecting a pullback for FDX to between 50.5 - 53


I am actually quite impressed that AMZN, OIH, GS, POT have all met my targets.
OIH could go to 100 if call to put ratio stayed more or less the same....As for AMZN...nah...not playing. GS is not shortable...IMHO, not risking too much capital.

FSLR....hmmm....maybe 150 -155
MON...erm...maybe 75-80
GDX...maybe to 38-39

May seem like a funny post...but I think that is about it....lol...will add more if I see anything coming. ;)

Trading Plan for Tuesday (July 14, 2009)

I am expecting a little pullback for QCOM....see how it plays out...Will start from a Neutral stance.


Profit or reputation...? Technically GS should be at around 145 on OpEx. The picture for JPM is more or less the same....

Trading Plan for Monday (July 13, 2009)

Goldman is pretty close to where it is suppose to be by OpEx. That aside, many things could happen in 4 days.


POT...hmmm...a lot of bears could get hurt soon IMHO. This stock could go up from here or:

OIH going as planned.

AMZN going as planned too


JPM will likely trade in a very tight range, I think its a buy if it gets below 32.

Trading Plan for Thursday (July 9, 2009)

Update 2 - I am looking at the market with a Neutral perspective from here...
Update 1 - Supplementary comments: I know this page has enjoyed a record breaking hit, but folks please don't forget that the likelihood for you to lose money is high if you hold calls or puts into options expiration. So don't be an "idiot". Continue to read what the market is telling you through your charts each day ya! .


Today was a nice trading day for bulls and bears! Its earnings season and OpEx is just around the corner, so be careful not to get sucked into the volatility trap.

Looking at the SPY chart, I still don't see any concrete change in trend despite the late day bounce.
The MACD is indicating that the market might rollover again soon after a little bit more upside....Unless we see an improvement in upside momentum.

Going long from today's low is quite correct to ride along with that tiny upside....IMHO. But don't forget to take your profits fast if you see the scenario mapping out.





On the contrary, I see OIH as a possible bullish setup. Here is a possible reason....to back up my analysis:
We know that OpEx is 9 days away...so MMs will eventually find a way to book their profits. They cannot close below 88, or else they will make a loss....So I sense that they will most likely whip OIH a bit before you see their true intentions which will most likely be between 94 - 100...that is if the calls to puts ratio stays around here...



This is my first attempt on GS, based on current call to put ratio. GS could end up between 140- 145 by OpEx. Remember these guys are the best, so some whipping around is expected...but knowing some odds does help.



As for AMZN, this stock could go to 80 if based on todays call to put ration by OpEx.


So you see, don't get too bearish too soon. I got a feeling that SPX might not break 870 too soon...even though it did...the rally following that is going to be really powerful....maybe after OpEx...lol Alrite enough for today, saving up my energy for the next day.

Going long ONLY IF (July 09, 2009)

Watching GS and IWM for any signs of bounce, of course from now on all rallies should be sold...at the right levels.

Trading Plan for Wednesday (July 8, 2009)

I was very disappointed yesterday...not so much of the market but more about the intermittent connection disruptions in my internet connection. It sucks! But still, I rather not take the risk to plunge into a trade to stay green.

The MMs are so good at keeping the SPX above 880. As mentioned if it weren't for the financials and some rally going on elsewhere....SPX would have been below 880 today. We just have to see what happens next, no point guessing.


I think the last piece of the puzzle could be the financials, transports and technology. The selling for the energy sector is more or less done...provided that it does not break down from here....that is a possibility too!...lol

Here are the charts of the Dow and the XLE Energy ETF....
XLE has retraced 50 %, text book wise...this sector could bounce. We just have to watch and see.


One final word...if you see SPX going sideways...do watch the VIX ya.

Trading Plan for Tuesday (July 07, 2009)

Well, we did have our snap back rally and now SPX has resistance above at 907, 913-920 with plenty of support below.


AMZN could be in for a tight ride up.



OIH getting to overbought soon.


FDX triangle scenario is mapping out.

Trading Plan for Monday (July 6, 2009)

I think SPY is in a position for a snap back rally at around 88, no smart bears ever short from here unless it is a day trade.

Here is the 3 month chart for a better view.


Watching QCOM, I think this stock has room to move to the upside or downside.
Earnings on 22 July 2009

Potential Ideas to invest in (June 6, 2009)

During Obama's visit to Russia, American companies are announcing their investments in Russia, could be short term dip for long term gains...?

Companies involved include:
DE $500 mil, PEP $4 Bil, BA with VSMPO-Avisma worth...?
XOM, CVX, COP, AA

BAC could be a cheap investment...? After being beaten down for the past year....its all about "Research...Research....Research" about any outstanding risk involved before committing some capital.
Top 10 Wealth Managers
Rank Bank Assets
1 Bank of America 1,501
2 UBS 1,393
3 Citi 1,320
4 Wells Fargo 1,000
5 Credit Suisse 612
6 JPMorgan 552
7 Morgan Stanley 522
8 HSBC 352
9 Deutsche Bank 231
10 Goldman Sachs 215


Well we will just have to watch those charts...

The week ahead (June 3, 2009)

The day has been filled with mixed sentiment, overall the market needs to reveal a little more. Some traders could be away for the long weekend, as you can see there is a lack of selling/ buying in the 5 minute chart. So what will Monday be...?

Current Hot Topic that I am watching : Naked Short Selling Rules



I can only see two possible scenarios:
1. A snap back rally
2. Another gap down or selloff on Monday due to traders coming back from their holidays.
3. No buyers or sellers stepping into the market...hence flat day.




To turn the sentiment of the market from bullish to bearish is going to take some time, many traders are still afraid to short the market for fear of a snap back rally.

Take POT as an example. If the MM wants to play hard ball and confuse the market, how can they gain the trust of the market...? Will we see this in the Dow or Nasdaq....?


Another example is MA

In summary, the bulls and the bears could still be in a tug of war...Hence I will just take this a day at a time.

SnapShort of Job Numbers

Just keeping my personal records of Job numbers for future reference

• Private Sector = - 415,000
• Natural Resources & Mining = - 8,000
• Construction = - 79,000
• Manufacturing = - 136,000
• Durable goods = - 112,000
• Non-durable goods = - 24,000
• Services = - 244,000
• Wholesale Trade = - 15,900
• Retail Trade = - 21,000
• Transportation = - 13,900
• Utilities = - 200
• Information & Media = - 21,000
• Financial Svcs & Real Estate = - 27,000
• Professional & Business Svcs = - 118,000
• Education = + 14,900
• Health Svcs = + 18,600
• Leisure = - 18,000
• Government = - 52,000

Friday Trading Plan (July 02, 2009)

The market is mostly up except for materials and energy and tech. This is like a pullback to 880 level or lower except that weaknesses in some sectors are offset by some other undervalued sectors. So it is not surprising to see SPX above 900. Unless sectors like Financials, Consumer and Utilities start selling off like mad...then maybe we could see SPX below 880.

So Im just planning to follow the market.

FDX had another fake out, to me it is still pretty much in the down channel.

DRI has now evolved into a channel, just follow along. NKE has also evolved into something similar, took my profits early to see what is next.


AMZN as expected, Im neither too bullish nor bearish on this stock. Breaking above 85.3 will change the entire game

OIH is enjoying a nice layer of support, I try to stay out of this sector if possible. Most earnings are at the end of July.