Saturday, January 31, 2009
UPS - Broke support (01 Feb 2009)
UPS has broken support on the yearly timeframe! A possible target could be 40.77, if that too fails watch out for 33.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Friday Outlook (30 Jan 2008)
Market is currently in a very cautious posture, this is not good for trend trading.
For many bears who are expecting to make good profits on the short side, you might be disappointed. For the bulls, the fear is not great enough for a cheap buy.
All the moving averages are finally catching up with one another...Although the 20 MA is pointing down, the 50 MA is still Neutral. Beneath 83.5, we have a range of support....so it is not ideal to go short from here. If you have shorted from yesterday's high, you might wanna cover your shorts if you are holding short term options at 83.5.
After yesterday's sell off, technical indicators for the financials are Neutral. So be on the look out for trades in any direction. Try not to hold your shorts on financials until next week, because there will be a vote in the Senate on the stimulus package and the bailout plan.
The major oil producers are beginning to get slightly oversold. CVX and XOM are reporting their earnings today. So I foresee that the oil majors will be a key trade today depending on what time they are reporting their earnings.
If earnings are worst than expected, wait for the selling to stop before buying on any dips.
GLD is currently overbought, it might wiggle around a bit at the top for a while. I would suggest you buy only on dips.
The Gold Miners are reporting their earnings in February, so watch out for any opportunity to buy on dips or you can enter shorts if you got the guts...lol.
Watchlist:
XOM, CVX, GS
IWM, XLF, DIG, ERX, GLD, GDX
For many bears who are expecting to make good profits on the short side, you might be disappointed. For the bulls, the fear is not great enough for a cheap buy.
All the moving averages are finally catching up with one another...Although the 20 MA is pointing down, the 50 MA is still Neutral. Beneath 83.5, we have a range of support....so it is not ideal to go short from here. If you have shorted from yesterday's high, you might wanna cover your shorts if you are holding short term options at 83.5.
After yesterday's sell off, technical indicators for the financials are Neutral. So be on the look out for trades in any direction. Try not to hold your shorts on financials until next week, because there will be a vote in the Senate on the stimulus package and the bailout plan.
The major oil producers are beginning to get slightly oversold. CVX and XOM are reporting their earnings today. So I foresee that the oil majors will be a key trade today depending on what time they are reporting their earnings.
If earnings are worst than expected, wait for the selling to stop before buying on any dips.
GLD is currently overbought, it might wiggle around a bit at the top for a while. I would suggest you buy only on dips.
The Gold Miners are reporting their earnings in February, so watch out for any opportunity to buy on dips or you can enter shorts if you got the guts...lol.
Watchlist:
XOM, CVX, GS
IWM, XLF, DIG, ERX, GLD, GDX
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
FOMC day, no trade until its over
A VERY VERY BIG GAP UP this morning due to a bounce from shorts covering. I bet the bears are "Shell Shocked". This is in anticipation of the House Vote for the Obama 875 Billion Stimulus Plan, so a lot of it has been priced in. I am still very Neutral of the market right now because MMs might choose to Sell the News or rally further....
Today is a no trade day until the FOMC meeting is over, the FED will talk about alternative strategies other than cutting rates to jump start the economy.
SPY 875 is the key level to watch for to go long with conviction.
Today is a no trade day until the FOMC meeting is over, the FED will talk about alternative strategies other than cutting rates to jump start the economy.
SPY 875 is the key level to watch for to go long with conviction.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Energy and Financials (25 Jan 2008)
11.16am - The market has a funny way for drawing in the bulls and the bears...either way this will only strengthen the move....
Crude Oil is beginning to gather some upside momentum, DIG and OIH had a good run last week.
On the fundamental side, there is still an oversupply of Crude Oil and the markets are anticipating demand to balance up with supply with time.
On the other hand the Dollar is strengthening and the EURO is weakening.
Next week major commodity companies like CVX, COP, XOM, BHI, HES are reporting their earnings. There will also be some medium sized commodity company earnings the week after as well. So I expect some impulsive sell off and possibly some agressive buyers coming in to buy the dips once the dust settle.
Financials have been rallying off there lows and I expect some pullback before any further upside at some point.
Keep an eye on WFC as well.
We should be quite ready for a rally once all the major Energy and Financial companies have reported their earnings by mid February.
There should be a lot of activity for daytraders like me and you for the whole week to keep busy.
My watchlist for next week:
POT, GS, BNI, UNP, JPM, PNC, OIH
Crude Oil is beginning to gather some upside momentum, DIG and OIH had a good run last week.
On the fundamental side, there is still an oversupply of Crude Oil and the markets are anticipating demand to balance up with supply with time.
On the other hand the Dollar is strengthening and the EURO is weakening.
Next week major commodity companies like CVX, COP, XOM, BHI, HES are reporting their earnings. There will also be some medium sized commodity company earnings the week after as well. So I expect some impulsive sell off and possibly some agressive buyers coming in to buy the dips once the dust settle.
Financials have been rallying off there lows and I expect some pullback before any further upside at some point.
Keep an eye on WFC as well.
We should be quite ready for a rally once all the major Energy and Financial companies have reported their earnings by mid February.
There should be a lot of activity for daytraders like me and you for the whole week to keep busy.
My watchlist for next week:
POT, GS, BNI, UNP, JPM, PNC, OIH
Friday, January 23, 2009
Market could trade in a range longer
Update 1: Gold shines. Staying alert for extreme moves.
Update 2: Volume drying up, MMs are having a meeting.
Update 3: SPX 833 for EOD unless we head higher
In the past, I used to rely on wave forecast made by other sites in my trading. Nowadays, I try not to look if possible.... It just takes away my focus and energy from my trading.
If they are wrong, then your mental state will cloud your decision making. It makes you stare at the "Technicals" and end up doing nothing.
Coming back to the "Technicals", I see the market continuing to trade in a range between SPX 800 to 950. IMO....EW wave forecast that predict doomsday scenario is highly unlikely.
In science, we have "Newton's Law" of "Action equals to Reaction". In the markets, we have something called a "Control". When markets are getting weaker, "Control" will come in to "Replenish The Lost Energy".
Let me give you a few examples of "Control":
1. the Government
2. You and me.
3. News
4. Corporations
and etc...
So folks, don't get too frightened by Dr Doom and his forecast. He may be right to a certain extent...but we must remember that we live in a world that can evolve...
Update 2: Volume drying up, MMs are having a meeting.
Update 3: SPX 833 for EOD unless we head higher
In the past, I used to rely on wave forecast made by other sites in my trading. Nowadays, I try not to look if possible.... It just takes away my focus and energy from my trading.
If they are wrong, then your mental state will cloud your decision making. It makes you stare at the "Technicals" and end up doing nothing.
Coming back to the "Technicals", I see the market continuing to trade in a range between SPX 800 to 950. IMO....EW wave forecast that predict doomsday scenario is highly unlikely.
In science, we have "Newton's Law" of "Action equals to Reaction". In the markets, we have something called a "Control". When markets are getting weaker, "Control" will come in to "Replenish The Lost Energy".
Let me give you a few examples of "Control":
1. the Government
2. You and me.
3. News
4. Corporations
and etc...
So folks, don't get too frightened by Dr Doom and his forecast. He may be right to a certain extent...but we must remember that we live in a world that can evolve...
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Financials can go up a few more days
Update 1: SPX - 825 should act as support. Follow the trend.
Update 2: All cash, until market finds a direction.
Update 3: Bearish news for Commodities. Crude inventories up
Update 4: Tired out playing both sides of the market. What a roller coaster...;)
In my previous post, I mentioned that something is gonna happen on next Monday. The picture is going to be clearer on Friday, if stochastics stays overbought most likely we will get a pullback by Monday.
Tomorrow we shall see if this rally can follow through.
I will be on the lookout for BNI, IBM, AAPL, JPM to perform at least until Friday.
JPM had a good run today, I am curious to see if JPM can push past 25 with conviction. Kindly be reminded that this stock is still stuck in a down channel.
SPX is currently in overbought territory, I am keeping an eye on 856 as potential resistance.
Euro remains in a downtrend, this is bad for commodities and stocks. So don't let your guard down just because we have a nice rally today.
Don't get me wrong, I am not writing off any continuation of this rally. Just be aware of those potential resistances.
On a positive note, I am taking note of share purchases made by executives of JPM, BAC. I think most of the financial stocks are quite ready to rally with the exception of WFC that has earnings due at the end of the month.
BUY ON DIPS:
Financials - JPM, GS, BAC
Tech - AAPL
Rails - BNI, UNP
Update 2: All cash, until market finds a direction.
Update 3: Bearish news for Commodities. Crude inventories up
Update 4: Tired out playing both sides of the market. What a roller coaster...;)
In my previous post, I mentioned that something is gonna happen on next Monday. The picture is going to be clearer on Friday, if stochastics stays overbought most likely we will get a pullback by Monday.
Tomorrow we shall see if this rally can follow through.
I will be on the lookout for BNI, IBM, AAPL, JPM to perform at least until Friday.
JPM had a good run today, I am curious to see if JPM can push past 25 with conviction. Kindly be reminded that this stock is still stuck in a down channel.
SPX is currently in overbought territory, I am keeping an eye on 856 as potential resistance.
Euro remains in a downtrend, this is bad for commodities and stocks. So don't let your guard down just because we have a nice rally today.
Don't get me wrong, I am not writing off any continuation of this rally. Just be aware of those potential resistances.
On a positive note, I am taking note of share purchases made by executives of JPM, BAC. I think most of the financial stocks are quite ready to rally with the exception of WFC that has earnings due at the end of the month.
BUY ON DIPS:
Financials - JPM, GS, BAC
Tech - AAPL
Rails - BNI, UNP
Wave 5 target
Thus far most of the pivot points (top or bottoms) for the Elliott waves do not meet their exact target. So be careful of the possibility of a failed Wave 5 at anytime.
However, the fundamentals point to more downside because there will be more corporate earning reports in the pipeline until March.
This Wave 5 down is quite impulsive because the sellers know what to expect....so rather than selling their holdings by bits...They chose to exit at the best price possible before any further damage to their holdings. This sort of impulsive sell off will create more overhead resistance for any potential rally to overcome....so take note of SPY - 85 level as potential resistance.
According to the chart of SPY, this sell off will take a break or resume on next Monday 26/01/2009. There is really not much support below 80, so we could be heading down to retest 75. Some other blogs are saying that there could be a possible rebound to around 88-90. I would rather keep an open mind on all possibilities.
The financials are looking really weak...Last week FAS was selling for 15, yesterday for 7. I wish to caution you not to enter into a trade before any confirmation of a turnaround even though it looks cheap. Imagine if most financial institutions are nationalized like FNM, FAS could sell for 7 for a very long time.
I am sticking to my trading strategy of not holding any positions overnight.
My watchlist:
GS, IWM, BNI, POT, GLD, RGLD
However, the fundamentals point to more downside because there will be more corporate earning reports in the pipeline until March.
This Wave 5 down is quite impulsive because the sellers know what to expect....so rather than selling their holdings by bits...They chose to exit at the best price possible before any further damage to their holdings. This sort of impulsive sell off will create more overhead resistance for any potential rally to overcome....so take note of SPY - 85 level as potential resistance.
According to the chart of SPY, this sell off will take a break or resume on next Monday 26/01/2009. There is really not much support below 80, so we could be heading down to retest 75. Some other blogs are saying that there could be a possible rebound to around 88-90. I would rather keep an open mind on all possibilities.
The financials are looking really weak...Last week FAS was selling for 15, yesterday for 7. I wish to caution you not to enter into a trade before any confirmation of a turnaround even though it looks cheap. Imagine if most financial institutions are nationalized like FNM, FAS could sell for 7 for a very long time.
I am sticking to my trading strategy of not holding any positions overnight.
My watchlist:
GS, IWM, BNI, POT, GLD, RGLD
Friday, January 16, 2009
How I am playing this reversal
Update: OpEx plus long weekend to burn your options....Im staying out....
European indexes mostly gap up big.... Due to the fear factor, you must be wondering how to play this rebound....?
My advice is to go in with only a small position for a start and get out when you see the slightest sign of pull back. You could possibly get a second opportunity to buy on dips.
As a kind reminder, Monday is a holiday and there are some earnings reports on Tuesday...so we might get a pullback before any rally.
Today, everybody has their eye fixed on BAC earnings report. Better sooner than later to clear the way for any potential rally.
My trading strategy is to not hold any positions overnight.
Due to more earnings report coming out in the coming weeks, I am not keeping any biases. I think the market can go in any direction from here and possibly put in a bottom somewhere between Feb and March.
My watchlist:
XOM, CVX, GS, IWM, FSLR, SPWRA, JEC
European indexes mostly gap up big.... Due to the fear factor, you must be wondering how to play this rebound....?
My advice is to go in with only a small position for a start and get out when you see the slightest sign of pull back. You could possibly get a second opportunity to buy on dips.
As a kind reminder, Monday is a holiday and there are some earnings reports on Tuesday...so we might get a pullback before any rally.
Today, everybody has their eye fixed on BAC earnings report. Better sooner than later to clear the way for any potential rally.
My trading strategy is to not hold any positions overnight.
Due to more earnings report coming out in the coming weeks, I am not keeping any biases. I think the market can go in any direction from here and possibly put in a bottom somewhere between Feb and March.
My watchlist:
XOM, CVX, GS, IWM, FSLR, SPWRA, JEC
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Candidates for possible Obama Rally..
Updates : Another leg down is possible, if not tomorrow we might have a big gap up to kill off any shorts...
Here are a few candidates for a possible Obama rally....again evaluate before you push that mouse button.
Here are a few candidates for a possible Obama rally....again evaluate before you push that mouse button.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Possible scenarios
Update1 - If it does not bounce looks like 820 is next, staying on the sidelines for now.
Everybody is wondering what is coming next...? If you take a look at the SPX chart below...notice the four possible scenarios that the arrows in red are indicating....
Stochastics is nearing oversold, so if there is any further downside...The bears will need to work very hard to breach the 857 level. Market is still holding up because everybody is looking up to Obama...but there are some wicked bears out there trying to tell everybody to sell....
The only motif bears want us to sell...is so that they can buy stocks cheaper at the bottom....and make some easy money through their puts...
In conclusion.....they don't have the guts or money to breach above 950...that is a fact...!
Alrite, back to the technicals....I see the recent sell off as a pull back....Until the market starts moving again...which will be soon... My advice is to keep your powder dry and just follow the trend...
Just a sidenote JPM is reporting their earnings tomorrow, expect some weakest from financials But when you see lots of fear in the market that might be some tell tale signs for a possible rally until the Obama Inauguration. Beyond that, we have a few other major banks reporting their earnings....So careful there..
Everybody is wondering what is coming next...? If you take a look at the SPX chart below...notice the four possible scenarios that the arrows in red are indicating....
Stochastics is nearing oversold, so if there is any further downside...The bears will need to work very hard to breach the 857 level. Market is still holding up because everybody is looking up to Obama...but there are some wicked bears out there trying to tell everybody to sell....
The only motif bears want us to sell...is so that they can buy stocks cheaper at the bottom....and make some easy money through their puts...
In conclusion.....they don't have the guts or money to breach above 950...that is a fact...!
Alrite, back to the technicals....I see the recent sell off as a pull back....Until the market starts moving again...which will be soon... My advice is to keep your powder dry and just follow the trend...
Just a sidenote JPM is reporting their earnings tomorrow, expect some weakest from financials But when you see lots of fear in the market that might be some tell tale signs for a possible rally until the Obama Inauguration. Beyond that, we have a few other major banks reporting their earnings....So careful there..
Monday, January 12, 2009
TIme to wait and see
Tuesday
Update1 - Possible reentry for shorts 882 - 894. If this market goes sideways for 1 -2 days, careful there.
Update 2 - Financials and Energy are in a bottoming process....you will likely experience some whipsaws. Direction is unclear, gap downs and gap ups are not my style of trading.....for now....I think its a casino.
Exited all shorts due to oversold conditions. A possible turning point for the overall trend is coming soon, lets just see if this oversold conditions will be corrected.
This week, I will be looking for any signs of rally due to the Obama inauguration. Also note that, OpEx is due in 3 - 4 days.
As for any downside risk; earning reports from AA, STT, AMR could be key to set the sentiment for their respective sectors.
The timing of all these events are perfect for any rally attempt IMO. But do be careful after the Obama inauguration because major financial institutions and commodity companies are due to report their earnings.
The chart below shows the SPY, I will be looking for a break below 87.58 to go short for a target of 85.51.
"Turning points in trends are scary, presenting another opportunity to profit from it".
Update1 - Possible reentry for shorts 882 - 894. If this market goes sideways for 1 -2 days, careful there.
Update 2 - Financials and Energy are in a bottoming process....you will likely experience some whipsaws. Direction is unclear, gap downs and gap ups are not my style of trading.....for now....I think its a casino.
Exited all shorts due to oversold conditions. A possible turning point for the overall trend is coming soon, lets just see if this oversold conditions will be corrected.
This week, I will be looking for any signs of rally due to the Obama inauguration. Also note that, OpEx is due in 3 - 4 days.
As for any downside risk; earning reports from AA, STT, AMR could be key to set the sentiment for their respective sectors.
The timing of all these events are perfect for any rally attempt IMO. But do be careful after the Obama inauguration because major financial institutions and commodity companies are due to report their earnings.
The chart below shows the SPY, I will be looking for a break below 87.58 to go short for a target of 85.51.
"Turning points in trends are scary, presenting another opportunity to profit from it".
My strategy shall remain to daytrade only.
Watchlist:
POT, GS, IWM, XOM, CVX, RGLD
Friday, January 9, 2009
Possible Buy Signal for JNJ on Monday
The charts are saying that there could be a possible Buy signal beginning Monday or Tuesday for JNJ. Could even be today...lol ;)
If not this stock could continue going sideways.
Just bare in mind that earnings is on 20th January.
The health sector is currently one of the better performing sectors in the S&P. The chart still looks quite bullish. Hopefully any overbought condition will be corrected in due time.
If not this stock could continue going sideways.
Just bare in mind that earnings is on 20th January.
The health sector is currently one of the better performing sectors in the S&P. The chart still looks quite bullish. Hopefully any overbought condition will be corrected in due time.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
IWM, MS, RIMM (08 Jan, 2009)
RIMM has had quite a good run, if this stock does not rebound today...watch out for a retracement to 45 or 42.
MS could retrace further if there is no major rebound, possible target is around 16 area.
IWM could retrace further if there is no major rebound to a possible target of 48.
As you can see, the trading range is getting tighter and tighter. Next week will be a major test of the overrall market to see if all those major resistance hold.
Im still in daytrading mode.
MS could retrace further if there is no major rebound, possible target is around 16 area.
IWM could retrace further if there is no major rebound to a possible target of 48.
As you can see, the trading range is getting tighter and tighter. Next week will be a major test of the overrall market to see if all those major resistance hold.
Im still in daytrading mode.
Monday, January 5, 2009
SPY - Analysis of Resistance
It seems like there is so much supply above 935...approximately 1 - 1.5 billion or less accumulated from 10/10/2008.
Our chances for breaching this level depends on how much of these supplies has been released when SPY sold off to hit the bottom on 24/11/2008.
Today, we tested 936 briefly on low volume...but I doubt that was any real test of that level. Sellers could just be waiting up there to get rid of some of their supply....but the bulls chickened out and pulled back.
So I will assume that, we will continue trading in the range of between 850 to 935 for a longer time.....unless I see sufficient volume coming in to retest and buy up those supplies.
In the short term, I expect the trading range to be real tight....unless MMs make an effort to pull back lower.
Our chances for breaching this level depends on how much of these supplies has been released when SPY sold off to hit the bottom on 24/11/2008.
Today, we tested 936 briefly on low volume...but I doubt that was any real test of that level. Sellers could just be waiting up there to get rid of some of their supply....but the bulls chickened out and pulled back.
So I will assume that, we will continue trading in the range of between 850 to 935 for a longer time.....unless I see sufficient volume coming in to retest and buy up those supplies.
In the short term, I expect the trading range to be real tight....unless MMs make an effort to pull back lower.
More 3X ETF to add to your watchlist
Direxion rolled out more 3X ETFs some time ago which I just got aware of.
They are:
DPK - Developed Markets Bear
DZK - Developed Markets Bull
EDC - Emerging Markets Bull
EDZ - Emerging Markets Bear
TYH - Technology Bull
TYP - Technology Bear
These 3Xs etfs will become a good alternative if the markets becomes too volatile in the coming weeks or months. The only trade off is, you will need to put more capital to work as compared to options.
Whether it is options, 3Xs ETFs or stock....the "Trend" is still your friend.
Here are the recommended time frames for each instrument in my style of trading:
Options: Minutes, Hours, Days
3X ETFs: Days, Weeks
Stock: Days, Weeks, Months, Years
They are:
DPK - Developed Markets Bear
DZK - Developed Markets Bull
EDC - Emerging Markets Bull
EDZ - Emerging Markets Bear
TYH - Technology Bull
TYP - Technology Bear
These 3Xs etfs will become a good alternative if the markets becomes too volatile in the coming weeks or months. The only trade off is, you will need to put more capital to work as compared to options.
Whether it is options, 3Xs ETFs or stock....the "Trend" is still your friend.
Here are the recommended time frames for each instrument in my style of trading:
Options: Minutes, Hours, Days
3X ETFs: Days, Weeks
Stock: Days, Weeks, Months, Years
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Possible Top on Monday
This post broke the ALL TIME RECORD for highest hits.
What is the matter with you guys? Just back from the holidays?
EOD Updates: No reason to short anything yet, it is just one of those whipsaw day. Tuesday should be an interesting day, if we don't go higher..it all means that trading will continue to be range bound.
Thus far rallies have lasted at least 4 days, so there could still be some rallying on Monday. If not then it is a correction day.
If we rally tomorrow...then the charts are pointing to a possible top or reversal on Tuesday. This should correct any overbought condition on the charts. I am looking for a possible retracement of between 38.2% to 50% for this rally to stay alive.
In addition SPY and RUT charts also pointing to another turning point between 09/01/2008 and 12/01/2008. What that is all depends on how overbought and oversold the markets are by Thursday.
My strategy shall remain the same....day trading only.
My watchlist:
GS, OIH, XOM, CVX, IWM
What is the matter with you guys? Just back from the holidays?
EOD Updates: No reason to short anything yet, it is just one of those whipsaw day. Tuesday should be an interesting day, if we don't go higher..it all means that trading will continue to be range bound.
Thus far rallies have lasted at least 4 days, so there could still be some rallying on Monday. If not then it is a correction day.
If we rally tomorrow...then the charts are pointing to a possible top or reversal on Tuesday. This should correct any overbought condition on the charts. I am looking for a possible retracement of between 38.2% to 50% for this rally to stay alive.
In addition SPY and RUT charts also pointing to another turning point between 09/01/2008 and 12/01/2008. What that is all depends on how overbought and oversold the markets are by Thursday.
My strategy shall remain the same....day trading only.
My watchlist:
GS, OIH, XOM, CVX, IWM
Friday, January 2, 2009
Friday Review
Oil and gas prices rebounded from their lows with heavy volume. Is this another dead cat bounce? Possibly.... I see this bounce as triggered by "Russia - Ukraine issue" and "Israel - Gaza conflict" at the moment.
The volume on USO has increased by 3 fold over the last two weeks. As usual next Wednesday will be the real test to see how true is this move tied to the fundamentals.
XOM is approaching the top, perhaps 1 or 2 more days to rally. It is not time to open short positions until it rolls over.
If I were to play any intermediate longs, I would do that through CVX because it has some more room to run.
GS seems like a good short in the morning, only to squeeze off the bears later in the day. This stock has the ability to correct itself within a day. The best indicator now is the overall market sentiment.
Technically, GS can still hit 88-89...with similar intraday correction in play next week. Very tricky to go long or short...you have to be really fast! But most of the time, the Bulls make most of the money...so don't fight the trend.
IWM is showing some signs of flattening due to profit taking towards the end of the day.
The VIX seems to be attracted to the 39 - 40 level, indicating that most traders still fear something and are taking some profits of the table as we head into the weekend.
The volume on USO has increased by 3 fold over the last two weeks. As usual next Wednesday will be the real test to see how true is this move tied to the fundamentals.
XOM is approaching the top, perhaps 1 or 2 more days to rally. It is not time to open short positions until it rolls over.
If I were to play any intermediate longs, I would do that through CVX because it has some more room to run.
GS seems like a good short in the morning, only to squeeze off the bears later in the day. This stock has the ability to correct itself within a day. The best indicator now is the overall market sentiment.
Technically, GS can still hit 88-89...with similar intraday correction in play next week. Very tricky to go long or short...you have to be really fast! But most of the time, the Bulls make most of the money...so don't fight the trend.
IWM is showing some signs of flattening due to profit taking towards the end of the day.
The VIX seems to be attracted to the 39 - 40 level, indicating that most traders still fear something and are taking some profits of the table as we head into the weekend.
Things to watch for in the First Quarter
We closed the year 2008 on a more positive note...
The past year has been a great learning experience, I believe many traders are better traders now having survived those tough environments.
Today is the first day of trading for 2009, apparently there are no major companies reporting their earnings today...but next few weeks will be loaded with earning reports.
I am planning to load up on some VIX calls to take advantage of any sudden surge in volatility if the market decides to stop rallying.
Yes, VIX is falling...but it has not fallen off the cliff....I think it might have found itself some good support at around 40. The next level if it continues its decline is around 34...so we shall see.
GS will be an interesting stock to watch to see if it is going to break that key resistance level at 86-89. If not get ready to enter some shorts.
Likewise, IWM is also interesting to watch. I think it tested the key resistance on the 31st Dec 2008 and failed somewhat. If today's attempt is successful then IWM could be retesting the 50 level.
The SPY picture is slightly better, but there is still key resistance levels between 90 to 93.5 to break.
So for today, I will be looking for short side opportunities first.....hate to say this....But I will be more than happy to participate in any rally....lol ;)
My watch list:
GS, IWM, VIX ...still compiling my list
Strategy is as usual, Im still in daytrade mode.
The past year has been a great learning experience, I believe many traders are better traders now having survived those tough environments.
Today is the first day of trading for 2009, apparently there are no major companies reporting their earnings today...but next few weeks will be loaded with earning reports.
I am planning to load up on some VIX calls to take advantage of any sudden surge in volatility if the market decides to stop rallying.
Yes, VIX is falling...but it has not fallen off the cliff....I think it might have found itself some good support at around 40. The next level if it continues its decline is around 34...so we shall see.
GS will be an interesting stock to watch to see if it is going to break that key resistance level at 86-89. If not get ready to enter some shorts.
Likewise, IWM is also interesting to watch. I think it tested the key resistance on the 31st Dec 2008 and failed somewhat. If today's attempt is successful then IWM could be retesting the 50 level.
The SPY picture is slightly better, but there is still key resistance levels between 90 to 93.5 to break.
So for today, I will be looking for short side opportunities first.....hate to say this....But I will be more than happy to participate in any rally....lol ;)
My watch list:
GS, IWM, VIX ...still compiling my list
Strategy is as usual, Im still in daytrade mode.
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