I was out hanging out with some long time friends, so indeed I have missed two days of rally.
Looking at the charts, my advice is not to attempt to short any thing at all...what pays is the price action during the day...not what we think will happen.
There are some interesting stocks like GS making new highs....While XOM, CVX is still on its way to its highs.... JPM, PNC, WFC are also on their journey up. So I think it is not wise to enter into any FAZ or ERY at the moment.
IWM has impressed me too, I was thinking of getting some TZA...but I think I will pospone my plan because there is still plenty of room for further upside.
Overall, the bullish sentiment is still quite strong. When those other traders come back from vacation, we have Obama to inspire the market...and I happen to be one of those traders who is hungry for more rally..... Kinda sick of shorting anything at all at the moment.
But yer know...I am a day trader for now...So when opportunity presents itself...I will take it...
Happy New Year!
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Monday, December 29, 2008
What is in store for January?
The year 2009 begins on Thursday! I am anxious to see how we are going to end the year, I smell a rally to about SPY - 90 - 92. To go beyond that will take a lot more market participation and willingness for sellers to hold on much longer.
I still see the market moving sideways...perhaps saving for a grand event like year end Window Dressing or Obama inauguration.
But I foresee that, January could be a more volatile month with many companies reporting their earnings. So I wouldn't be going into big bets, I think it is better to wait for more conservative setups for more consistent profits.
The key things that I am watching out for are Gold, Crude Oil, Infrastructure stocks and Small Caps.
The market sentiment remains cautiously bullish amid some uncertainty during the holiday season. Obama is beginning his Presidency in mid January, so I see 3 possible scenarios developing:
1. Testing the lows and then rally.
2. Trading sideways and then rally.
3. Corporate earnings and other unforeseen events fade any optimism for an Obama rally.
Therefore, I shall continue to stick to my strategy of daytrading.
My watchlist:
GS, VIX, FSLR, IWM, AEM, NUE
I still see the market moving sideways...perhaps saving for a grand event like year end Window Dressing or Obama inauguration.
But I foresee that, January could be a more volatile month with many companies reporting their earnings. So I wouldn't be going into big bets, I think it is better to wait for more conservative setups for more consistent profits.
The key things that I am watching out for are Gold, Crude Oil, Infrastructure stocks and Small Caps.
The market sentiment remains cautiously bullish amid some uncertainty during the holiday season. Obama is beginning his Presidency in mid January, so I see 3 possible scenarios developing:
1. Testing the lows and then rally.
2. Trading sideways and then rally.
3. Corporate earnings and other unforeseen events fade any optimism for an Obama rally.
Therefore, I shall continue to stick to my strategy of daytrading.
My watchlist:
GS, VIX, FSLR, IWM, AEM, NUE
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Perfect Day Trading Environment
Merry Christmas fellow readers!
I have been having a great time day trading, the markets are moving better than last week. Volatility is about right, enjoy this while you can.
I have been focusing primarily on IWM options recently...because they are quite cheap at this time of the year.
For those of you who are still hopeful on the Santa Rally, all is not lost until Christmas Eve.
Most stocks indexes are still trading within a range, nothing is broken...so my stance is neutral for the time being.
Ok, good luck in your trading...the "TREND" is your friend. It has worked for me thus far
I have been having a great time day trading, the markets are moving better than last week. Volatility is about right, enjoy this while you can.
I have been focusing primarily on IWM options recently...because they are quite cheap at this time of the year.
For those of you who are still hopeful on the Santa Rally, all is not lost until Christmas Eve.
Most stocks indexes are still trading within a range, nothing is broken...so my stance is neutral for the time being.
Ok, good luck in your trading...the "TREND" is your friend. It has worked for me thus far
Friday, December 19, 2008
I smell something good (19 Dec 2008)
I hope you made a good profit yesterday ;)
Basically I stayed on the sidelines keeping my hands on the mouse trigger....waiting for a bigger sell off. Unfortunately, it did not happen. The bullishness of the SPY chart is still intact.
Friday will be an interesting day, I suspect this might be a good opportunity for the bulls because an announcement might be made about the auto rescue plan.
On the other hand, the pull back of the EURO to 1.4 could mean that it has found some intermediate support.
In addition, Treasuries are making its first correction after a 7 week rally... So some money is coming out from Treasuries.
On the bearish side, the possibility for the Dollar or Treasuries to resume the rally still remains.
For longs, Im aiming for 91.43. If we manage to get above 92.43 the next target is 93.41. Then there is nothing stopping it from going to 95.42
For shorts, I plan to open positions if 88.27 is breached. My target is 86.31 followed by 85.44
Basically I stayed on the sidelines keeping my hands on the mouse trigger....waiting for a bigger sell off. Unfortunately, it did not happen. The bullishness of the SPY chart is still intact.
Friday will be an interesting day, I suspect this might be a good opportunity for the bulls because an announcement might be made about the auto rescue plan.
On the other hand, the pull back of the EURO to 1.4 could mean that it has found some intermediate support.
In addition, Treasuries are making its first correction after a 7 week rally... So some money is coming out from Treasuries.
On the bearish side, the possibility for the Dollar or Treasuries to resume the rally still remains.
For longs, Im aiming for 91.43. If we manage to get above 92.43 the next target is 93.41. Then there is nothing stopping it from going to 95.42
For shorts, I plan to open positions if 88.27 is breached. My target is 86.31 followed by 85.44
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
TLT Rally (17 Dec 2008)
Shorting TLT is not ideal when the FED is still buying up MBS. I am still trying to figure out a way to determine how to detect a turnaround in this Bond rally and I have to be honest with you that...it is very hard to know the right timing to short this.
I am pretty sure that the we will know when equities start rallying and get out of this depressed state...In the mean time I wouldn't want to get in the way of this rally.
If you feel that you want to short this and are willing to be patient...then go for the TBT. I do not think that the returns will be as great as the returns on your equity trades.
I am pretty sure that the we will know when equities start rallying and get out of this depressed state...In the mean time I wouldn't want to get in the way of this rally.
If you feel that you want to short this and are willing to be patient...then go for the TBT. I do not think that the returns will be as great as the returns on your equity trades.
SPY (17 Dec 2008)
The S&P Futures throughout the asian and european trading session were lower than yesterday's closing price. At one point it was more than 20 points lower.
Where this market is headed to this morning depends on how we open the trading session.
As of now the SPY is in overbought territory, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a retracement of up to 50%. It all depends on the buying momentum of this rally, overbought
conditions does not mean that the market cannot keep on rallying.
So the first sign that I am looking for is how big the gap down or gap up is going to be...and then I will make the necessary adjustments to my trading plan.
If we break 91.96 today, this rally can continue higher to 93.30 then 94.95. If not I am expecting SPY to close unchanged and continue lower tomorrow...hence continuing to trade in a range of 82 - 92
I am keeping my watch list smaller due to the fast paced market:
Possible Shorts: GS, IWM, ERY, FAZ
Possible Longs: GS, IWM
Where this market is headed to this morning depends on how we open the trading session.
As of now the SPY is in overbought territory, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a retracement of up to 50%. It all depends on the buying momentum of this rally, overbought
conditions does not mean that the market cannot keep on rallying.
So the first sign that I am looking for is how big the gap down or gap up is going to be...and then I will make the necessary adjustments to my trading plan.
If we break 91.96 today, this rally can continue higher to 93.30 then 94.95. If not I am expecting SPY to close unchanged and continue lower tomorrow...hence continuing to trade in a range of 82 - 92
I am keeping my watch list smaller due to the fast paced market:
Possible Shorts: GS, IWM, ERY, FAZ
Possible Longs: GS, IWM
Monday, December 15, 2008
GS earnings tomorrow (16 Dec 2008)
16 Dec 2008 - GS Loss not as bad as expected
In case you are wondering why I refrain from making a post today. Its simply because I don't want to speculate on GS earnings. If it turns out to be not as bad as expected then you might see a rebound on this stock.
The FED is going to announce their interest rate decision tomorrow, that could be a reason for some weakness in the dollar. But judging by what I see in the commodities market space, I think traders are not convinced by the decent gains in Crude Oil earlier in the morning...hence leading to a sell off later in the day.
In conclusion, there is still no decent trend...hence I will stay on the sidelines for a while.
Bulls and Bears lose in this choppy market...so do be patient with your trading ya.
In case you are wondering why I refrain from making a post today. Its simply because I don't want to speculate on GS earnings. If it turns out to be not as bad as expected then you might see a rebound on this stock.
The FED is going to announce their interest rate decision tomorrow, that could be a reason for some weakness in the dollar. But judging by what I see in the commodities market space, I think traders are not convinced by the decent gains in Crude Oil earlier in the morning...hence leading to a sell off later in the day.
In conclusion, there is still no decent trend...hence I will stay on the sidelines for a while.
Bulls and Bears lose in this choppy market...so do be patient with your trading ya.
Friday, December 12, 2008
SPY may not break above 920 (12 Dec 2008)
The Auto bailout failure and JPM CEO statements caused the markets to tank. Prior to these events, I still see stocks trading in a range.
In the morning, I was going long on GS after a pullback and a 2nd attempt to breakout. Even though the volume was impressive, it was a fake break out. From then on I switched to bearish mode by looking out for any potential breakdowns in the stocks that I am watching today...primarily GS, POT.
I think SPY is highly unlikely to breakout above the 920 level. Which MM would risk their money to do such a thing? In the event that there is a 2nd attempt to bailout the Auto makers...I expect just a moderate rally...simply because there are so many resistance levels above us now....and heading into middle of December keep an eye on more Hedge Fund redemptions.
The key resistance levels after yesterday's events are 85.71 and 88.45
Breaking below resistance 83.43 will see SPY heading to 81.63.
Here is a more detailed chart of my trading plan. Notice the number of resistances overhead, we will need a very powerful rally to overcome all those. Note the possible reversal point in the event that you wish to go long for a scalp...?
In the morning, I was going long on GS after a pullback and a 2nd attempt to breakout. Even though the volume was impressive, it was a fake break out. From then on I switched to bearish mode by looking out for any potential breakdowns in the stocks that I am watching today...primarily GS, POT.
I think SPY is highly unlikely to breakout above the 920 level. Which MM would risk their money to do such a thing? In the event that there is a 2nd attempt to bailout the Auto makers...I expect just a moderate rally...simply because there are so many resistance levels above us now....and heading into middle of December keep an eye on more Hedge Fund redemptions.
The key resistance levels after yesterday's events are 85.71 and 88.45
Breaking below resistance 83.43 will see SPY heading to 81.63.
Here is a more detailed chart of my trading plan. Notice the number of resistances overhead, we will need a very powerful rally to overcome all those. Note the possible reversal point in the event that you wish to go long for a scalp...?
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
KO, GS (10 Dec 2008)
KO, GS could be due for a bounce; there is still a little room to correct before touching the trend line.
You can buy on the dip if you notice a reversal as long as the trend line holds.
You can buy on the dip if you notice a reversal as long as the trend line holds.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Terrible Fake Outs - Bull Trap? (9 Dec 2008)
Basicly, I am not very impressed with today's bounce. It can't go higher because there is no participation from people like you and me. Tell me if you did?
First of all...we have to ask ourselves what was the purpose of the gap up? Could it be that the market makers want to scare the shorts to cover...? If it is I don't mind at all....we shall see.
AZO, FDX has worked as expected....but tomorrow shall be a key day to see if we are heading down or not. I would'nt be suprised at all if these stocks turn green tomorrow to scare the shorts a little.
Basicly, SPY is still trapped in the descending channel. It should have broken out of this channel today if it really wants to stage a genuine rally.
Here is the chart of SPY showing potential levels for tomorrow if there is any big move. I just hate to see SPY end up smack in the middle again...keeping us guessing ....that sucks.
Finally, I wish to caution the bears because we are closing in on OpEx. So it is advisable to remain defensive in your trading because MaxPain for SPY is 100. So I wouldn't write of a rally to somewhere close to 100.
Strategy:
Daytrade only.
Watchlist:
Neutral: GS
Buy Dips: PNC
Potential Shorts: SAFM, FDX (Gone even before market opened...yikes)
First of all...we have to ask ourselves what was the purpose of the gap up? Could it be that the market makers want to scare the shorts to cover...? If it is I don't mind at all....we shall see.
AZO, FDX has worked as expected....but tomorrow shall be a key day to see if we are heading down or not. I would'nt be suprised at all if these stocks turn green tomorrow to scare the shorts a little.
Basicly, SPY is still trapped in the descending channel. It should have broken out of this channel today if it really wants to stage a genuine rally.
Here is the chart of SPY showing potential levels for tomorrow if there is any big move. I just hate to see SPY end up smack in the middle again...keeping us guessing ....that sucks.
Finally, I wish to caution the bears because we are closing in on OpEx. So it is advisable to remain defensive in your trading because MaxPain for SPY is 100. So I wouldn't write of a rally to somewhere close to 100.
Strategy:
Daytrade only.
Watchlist:
Neutral: GS
Buy Dips: PNC
Potential Shorts: SAFM, FDX (Gone even before market opened...yikes)
Sunday, December 7, 2008
SPY (08 Dec 2008)
SPY is still in the grey area and I shall remain neutral on the major indexes. From past week's action, it appears that the sell down on commodities has been offset by buying in other sectors hence....making SPY appear to trade sideways.
I can see money flowing out of some defensive consumer stocks like PG, JNJ into other undervalued quality names in other sectors. Even some consumer discretionary stocks like DECK, TIF, RL has gained despite their earlier weakness.
Here is the SPY chart for Monday, if 83.61 holds we will most like trade sideways or head higher if SPY can breach 89.71.
I can see money flowing out of some defensive consumer stocks like PG, JNJ into other undervalued quality names in other sectors. Even some consumer discretionary stocks like DECK, TIF, RL has gained despite their earlier weakness.
Here is the SPY chart for Monday, if 83.61 holds we will most like trade sideways or head higher if SPY can breach 89.71.
Buy Dips - WMT, ENR (8 Dec 2008)
I found a couple more potential long ideas, I think some bad news next week might present some buying opportunity.
WMT is moving within an ascending channel, if there is any selling next week. My advice is to buy on weakness near the lower trend line.
ENR is about to breakout, keep an eye on this for buying on dips.
I can see some profit taking and buying into some badly beaten up stocks happening.
Try not to hold overnight because I am not sure whether we are going to have Selling or Santa Rally.... We are still in a grey area.
WMT is moving within an ascending channel, if there is any selling next week. My advice is to buy on weakness near the lower trend line.
ENR is about to breakout, keep an eye on this for buying on dips.
I can see some profit taking and buying into some badly beaten up stocks happening.
Try not to hold overnight because I am not sure whether we are going to have Selling or Santa Rally.... We are still in a grey area.
KO - Cheap and easy (07 Dec 2008)
I was enjoying my "Coke" the other day and was wondering how is Coke doing....
I am quite impressed with the amount of activity in this stock on a daily basis.
On average this stock has been moving at about 2.50 each day. So its a pretty consistent stock to make money each day, I highly recommend you buy on dips on a daily basis...and don't forget to take profit fast.
I am quite impressed with the amount of activity in this stock on a daily basis.
On average this stock has been moving at about 2.50 each day. So its a pretty consistent stock to make money each day, I highly recommend you buy on dips on a daily basis...and don't forget to take profit fast.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
SPY (05 Dec 2008)
SPY is still showing no signs of direction, I won't be playing the indexes. It might seem that there is not much going in the markets...actually there is. You will need to drill down to those individual stocks to see the action.
Today we saw commodities continue to decline, I have no short positions for commodities at the moment. But I think, commodities are setting up for a move soon.
If you remember GS...on how there was a sell of day after day a few weeks ago, I hope you see what I mean. If there is any big move in commodities...it is going to be a shocker.
AZO, FDX, FSLR will have a big move soon; they are all in different sectors and are showing different price actions. (Click on link to drill down)
As for the SPY, if there is any big move to the upside or the downside. Here are the likely
targets.
If SPY goes up, I plan to go for the TNA, FAS, ERX. It all depends on whether commodities wanna move or not...if not I will just leave out ERX. Ideally I like FAS to pullback a little bit for a cheaper entry.
As for the downside, I prefer to use individual shares to get the maximum effect.
Today we saw commodities continue to decline, I have no short positions for commodities at the moment. But I think, commodities are setting up for a move soon.
If you remember GS...on how there was a sell of day after day a few weeks ago, I hope you see what I mean. If there is any big move in commodities...it is going to be a shocker.
AZO, FDX, FSLR will have a big move soon; they are all in different sectors and are showing different price actions. (Click on link to drill down)
As for the SPY, if there is any big move to the upside or the downside. Here are the likely
targets.
If SPY goes up, I plan to go for the TNA, FAS, ERX. It all depends on whether commodities wanna move or not...if not I will just leave out ERX. Ideally I like FAS to pullback a little bit for a cheaper entry.
As for the downside, I prefer to use individual shares to get the maximum effect.
FSLR (05 Dec 2008)
This stock is trading in a descending channel until it can prove otherwise by breaking out from this channel for 2 - 3 days.
I like this stock for a daytrade for now.
I like this stock for a daytrade for now.
AZO (05 Dec 2008)
Now I see the pattern in AZO...lol.
Its quite an easy play, as soon as the auto bailout news is over. Your short positions should work, so be patient with this one.
Its quite an easy play, as soon as the auto bailout news is over. Your short positions should work, so be patient with this one.
FDX (05 Dec 2008)
FDX is trading inside a rising wedge, if we gap down tomorrow I foresee 2 scenarios:
1. Lower trend line holds and we might rally into the close.
2. Lower trend line is broken and we could be headed 63.90, I plan to exit shorts from there.
On the other hand, we gap up...I am planning to enter short position at 79.80.
1. Lower trend line holds and we might rally into the close.
2. Lower trend line is broken and we could be headed 63.90, I plan to exit shorts from there.
On the other hand, we gap up...I am planning to enter short position at 79.80.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
SPY (04 Dec 2008)
Out of curiosity, I have updated the SPY forecast chart. Apparently, we are still lying in the grey area. I believe Thursday's trading session could be key, here are the updated 2 scenarios.
1. Bearish case - Rally to 91.91 before turning south for more selling until 73.79.
2. Bullish case - Breakdown to 80.44 before turning around for a huge rally tp 92.94.
My stockpicks:
Potential Shorts:
AZO - 116
FSLR - 133.72 - A gap up could be possible before rolling over
FDX - 71.83 - A gap up could be possible before rolling over.
Potential Long:
AZO - 91.9
FSLR - 92.89,
FDX - 44.45
GS - 72.79 - A gap down first perhaps.
2 Possible Scenarios (03 December 2008)
Day trading has nothing to do to predict any future... I have been doing some Elliott wave analysis to forecast possible targets in the short term.
So far, I noticed that the market has been switching back and forth between a bullish/bearish Gartley pattern to make any Elliott wave analysis all the more confusing and taking more effort to do it on a daily basis.
From the SPY chart below, I foresee two possible scenarios in the coming days.
1. SPY could hit 79.99 and then rally towards 96.28.
2. SPY could rally all the way to 95.24. What happens after that, seems quite unimaginable...I know, it could plunge to 73.66 or lower to 60.97
One thing for sure....technically the chart is telling us that there could be a technical rebound soon. This analysis is only valid for today, not planning to play god to predict the future...lol
So far, I noticed that the market has been switching back and forth between a bullish/bearish Gartley pattern to make any Elliott wave analysis all the more confusing and taking more effort to do it on a daily basis.
From the SPY chart below, I foresee two possible scenarios in the coming days.
1. SPY could hit 79.99 and then rally towards 96.28.
2. SPY could rally all the way to 95.24. What happens after that, seems quite unimaginable...I know, it could plunge to 73.66 or lower to 60.97
One thing for sure....technically the chart is telling us that there could be a technical rebound soon. This analysis is only valid for today, not planning to play god to predict the future...lol
Monday, December 1, 2008
Tomorrow and Watchlist updates (02 Dec 2008)
Just what I have been looking for, the watchlist performed better than expected. Just take a look at the moves in the price...
I will be sticking to this watch list tomorrow because it works.
If you ask me what is going to happen tomorrow, well...nobody knows..... We have broken through any barriers below, it all depends on the MMs and the market now. It is hard to predict market behavior when all memory's from the past have been erased. The market is on course to set a new record here....so we will just have to take one day at a time.
Here is a chart of SPY indicating in green any upside targets, in red any downside targets. Right now we are smacked right in the middle of a trading range. All I can say is if we breach 80.5 on the SPY, we will reach 75 with ease.
On top of the watch list above, I just discovered that the VIX could be a good buy. The way to play this is to buy when if you see markets tanking.
On a final note, be careful if you are trading AZO, FSYS. There is a slight risk in relation to the Auto Bailout.
I will be sticking to this watch list tomorrow because it works.
If you ask me what is going to happen tomorrow, well...nobody knows..... We have broken through any barriers below, it all depends on the MMs and the market now. It is hard to predict market behavior when all memory's from the past have been erased. The market is on course to set a new record here....so we will just have to take one day at a time.Here is a chart of SPY indicating in green any upside targets, in red any downside targets. Right now we are smacked right in the middle of a trading range. All I can say is if we breach 80.5 on the SPY, we will reach 75 with ease.
On top of the watch list above, I just discovered that the VIX could be a good buy. The way to play this is to buy when if you see markets tanking.
On a final note, be careful if you are trading AZO, FSYS. There is a slight risk in relation to the Auto Bailout.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
SPY, Stockpicks (29 November 2008)
Dec 1, 2008 - Updated Watch List
The month of November has ended, Monday will be the first day of December. The SPY chart is raising a smart alarm bell, indicating that the market is close to a point of deciding which direction to head....? The message does not necessary mean you should go short...It just means that you just be cautious in taking up big and agressive positions.
If the market heads up on Monday, the first level of resistance is 90.96 followed by 91.73.
I have enjoyed my past 5 trading session because it is so calm and I like the clear direction.
If I have a choice, I don't ever want to short the market...because it creates violent zigzags...seems so stressful to trade.
News headlines in CNBC are mixed and misleading, some analyst expect oil to hit 80 some expect oil to hit 20 in the coming weeks. This is very confusing, so I guess I will just follow the charts.
Santa claus rally or not...I will just trade what I see.
My strategy remains...to daytrade.
My stance shall remain neutral...market could be in consolidation mode, so watch out for any potential shorts or longs:
GS, STT, PNC, MA, V
AZO, JEC, FSYS, RTP, BHP
OIH, HES, DO, MON
FDX
FSLR, ENER
EXC, ETR
BIDU, SOHU, SINA
ITRI
PCLN
CMG
BGC
If you think you sported a long term trend and dislike options go for these ETFs:
Long: ERX, TNA, FAS
Short:ERY, TZA, FAZ
The month of November has ended, Monday will be the first day of December. The SPY chart is raising a smart alarm bell, indicating that the market is close to a point of deciding which direction to head....? The message does not necessary mean you should go short...It just means that you just be cautious in taking up big and agressive positions.
If the market heads up on Monday, the first level of resistance is 90.96 followed by 91.73.
I have enjoyed my past 5 trading session because it is so calm and I like the clear direction.
If I have a choice, I don't ever want to short the market...because it creates violent zigzags...seems so stressful to trade.
News headlines in CNBC are mixed and misleading, some analyst expect oil to hit 80 some expect oil to hit 20 in the coming weeks. This is very confusing, so I guess I will just follow the charts.
Santa claus rally or not...I will just trade what I see.
My strategy remains...to daytrade.
My stance shall remain neutral...market could be in consolidation mode, so watch out for any potential shorts or longs:
GS, STT, PNC, MA, V
AZO, JEC, FSYS, RTP, BHP
OIH, HES, DO, MON
FDX
FSLR, ENER
EXC, ETR
BIDU, SOHU, SINA
ITRI
PCLN
CMG
BGC
If you think you sported a long term trend and dislike options go for these ETFs:
Long: ERX, TNA, FAS
Short:ERY, TZA, FAZ
Thursday, November 27, 2008
GS, OIH, BIDU (28 Nov 2008)
I hope you enjoyed your Thanks Giving holiday!
Friday will be an interesting trading day, it is the end of the month and most fund managers might wanna maintain those gains from the rally. The I kinda look through some stocks which I think have a little more room to run.
GS, OIH is in overbought territory, but that doesn't mean they can't run further....just keep an eye on them.
BIDU still has plenty of room to run IMO, the resistance is at about 178.
The SPY is a simpler chart now, any upwards move will like encounter resistance at 91.73, breaching past this level of resistance will lead us to 94.06. As for the short side, I will be crazy to suggest to you now, but just beware if SPY breaches 84.2.
Strategy:
Daytrade
Friday will be an interesting trading day, it is the end of the month and most fund managers might wanna maintain those gains from the rally. The I kinda look through some stocks which I think have a little more room to run.
GS, OIH is in overbought territory, but that doesn't mean they can't run further....just keep an eye on them.
BIDU still has plenty of room to run IMO, the resistance is at about 178.
The SPY is a simpler chart now, any upwards move will like encounter resistance at 91.73, breaching past this level of resistance will lead us to 94.06. As for the short side, I will be crazy to suggest to you now, but just beware if SPY breaches 84.2.
Strategy:
Daytrade
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
SPY (26 November 2008)
Tuesday action shows that the market is getting ready for a big move soon. Most likely there will be a gap up or a gap down coming, this will trap either the bears or the bulls.
Its like a casino game, I am not too much into betting...good luck with your bets! ;)
The dollar decline might seem like a beginning of inflation, but I think you need next week to confirm this. Trading as we approach a holiday is usually thin so it is easier to manipulate the forex markets.
On GLD, it is likely that we will see some sideways action or possibly hit 83 before we see a decline again. I do not expect the decline to be much, but it can be traded. We shall see....still pending confirmation. Need more data to see whether this is a "buy the dip" or "short"
Here is an outline of my trading plan:
1. Attempt a short at 83
2. Go long at 88.45
3. If non of the above, expect another session of sideways action. Trading range will be very tight, these MMs are good.
My picks:
Long: PNC, ERX, RIG
Short: ERY, RIG
Its like a casino game, I am not too much into betting...good luck with your bets! ;)
The dollar decline might seem like a beginning of inflation, but I think you need next week to confirm this. Trading as we approach a holiday is usually thin so it is easier to manipulate the forex markets.
On GLD, it is likely that we will see some sideways action or possibly hit 83 before we see a decline again. I do not expect the decline to be much, but it can be traded. We shall see....still pending confirmation. Need more data to see whether this is a "buy the dip" or "short"
Here is an outline of my trading plan:
1. Attempt a short at 83
2. Go long at 88.45
3. If non of the above, expect another session of sideways action. Trading range will be very tight, these MMs are good.
My picks:
Long: PNC, ERX, RIG
Short: ERY, RIG
Monday, November 24, 2008
SPY (25 November 2008)
Another huge move to the upside, fantastic day. I got out of ERY early to avoid any more pain, learned another lesson not to hold positions overnight. I will never ever do that again...better to settle for less profits than to lose some money....lol
Today's rally SHOCKED many bears including myself, even though I have a trading plan....but the mental side of it is still bearish....and I have to admit that...it was only after reading a few postings on some other credible blogs.
The charts have been telling the truth thus far...and technically...my trading plan has been working.
Here is the trading plan for Tuesday.
My strategy is to daytrade only:
1. Get below 79.82 then we are headed for 78.11 or 75.41.
2. Get above 88.38 then we are headed for 90.1 or 92.83.
3. Else expect some sideways trading. Plenty opportunities for day trading in this environment
Most likely the trading range is between 81.3 To 87.9.
Keep in mind that MM will take every opportunity to try to rally the market. The forex market is on the bull's side. And we are also approaching month end, so there could be some window dressing if not expect some sideways trading to maintain the gains from the 2 day rally.
On the downside, I have no comments at the moment...it is hard to go wrong if you follow my trading plan because it is neither bullish nor bearish.
My picks are:
For Shorts: ERY
For Longs: ERX
Today's rally SHOCKED many bears including myself, even though I have a trading plan....but the mental side of it is still bearish....and I have to admit that...it was only after reading a few postings on some other credible blogs.
The charts have been telling the truth thus far...and technically...my trading plan has been working.
Here is the trading plan for Tuesday.
My strategy is to daytrade only:1. Get below 79.82 then we are headed for 78.11 or 75.41.
2. Get above 88.38 then we are headed for 90.1 or 92.83.
3. Else expect some sideways trading. Plenty opportunities for day trading in this environment
Most likely the trading range is between 81.3 To 87.9.
Keep in mind that MM will take every opportunity to try to rally the market. The forex market is on the bull's side. And we are also approaching month end, so there could be some window dressing if not expect some sideways trading to maintain the gains from the 2 day rally.
On the downside, I have no comments at the moment...it is hard to go wrong if you follow my trading plan because it is neither bullish nor bearish.
My picks are:
For Shorts: ERY
For Longs: ERX
Saturday, November 22, 2008
SPY - Possible Scenarios (22 Nov 2008)
Interestingly, we had a bounce on Friday...Question is ...do we call the 750 level an intermediate bottom?
I own some ERY with an average point of entry near the SPY 77 - 80 level.
Friday was option expiry day for SPY and major market players needed to bounce SPY to the 80 level to maximize profits.
I admit I am not an expert in counting smaller waves, but allow me to present you with the Elliotte wave counts.
Note the relatively short Wave 4, which did not even make it back to the 110 level....which brings into question whether Wave 3 has actually ended...? Technically we have breached the lows from back in 2002 so this is a whole new ball game.
I have to admit that, I am holding on to a nervous short on Energy. I base my decision on XOM which is my barometer for ERY...which is just 2 dollars away from the maximum pain. As long as Crude Oil prices keep falling, I will hold on to this shorts.
In the weeks ahead, the issues on my radar are the auto bailout and possibility of more bank failures. My main concern is the amount of job losses in those sectors that can cause job losses in other sectors as well.
Sure the government can bailout the auto sector, but who is going to buy the automobile for the next year or two. So there could still be round two or three of more begging for more money.
This recession could be deep until jobless people find employment again!
Conclusion: Less demand for Crude Oil, Energy
On Monday I will base my trading decision on the SPY chart below
Strategy
1. Some fellow think we are going to rally...sure....that is a possibility. Get above 82.4 with volume and we are in for a rally to retest 85- 86
2. Break below 79.4 and then we are back to about 75.
3. Break below 74.43 and then we are heading to 70.85
4. If none of the above, then we will most like trade sideways in a tight range for a while.
My picks:
For shorts: ERY
For longs: ERX
I own some ERY with an average point of entry near the SPY 77 - 80 level.
Friday was option expiry day for SPY and major market players needed to bounce SPY to the 80 level to maximize profits.
I admit I am not an expert in counting smaller waves, but allow me to present you with the Elliotte wave counts.
Note the relatively short Wave 4, which did not even make it back to the 110 level....which brings into question whether Wave 3 has actually ended...? Technically we have breached the lows from back in 2002 so this is a whole new ball game.
I have to admit that, I am holding on to a nervous short on Energy. I base my decision on XOM which is my barometer for ERY...which is just 2 dollars away from the maximum pain. As long as Crude Oil prices keep falling, I will hold on to this shorts.
In the weeks ahead, the issues on my radar are the auto bailout and possibility of more bank failures. My main concern is the amount of job losses in those sectors that can cause job losses in other sectors as well.
Sure the government can bailout the auto sector, but who is going to buy the automobile for the next year or two. So there could still be round two or three of more begging for more money.
This recession could be deep until jobless people find employment again!
Conclusion: Less demand for Crude Oil, Energy
On Monday I will base my trading decision on the SPY chart below
Strategy
1. Some fellow think we are going to rally...sure....that is a possibility. Get above 82.4 with volume and we are in for a rally to retest 85- 86
2. Break below 79.4 and then we are back to about 75.
3. Break below 74.43 and then we are heading to 70.85
4. If none of the above, then we will most like trade sideways in a tight range for a while.
My picks:
For shorts: ERY
For longs: ERX
Friday, November 21, 2008
SPY (21 Nov 2008)
Major indexes rebounded very early. I am following the SPY because it has some energy and materials component stocks in there.
The chart below shows the SPY, notice the light volume of the early rebound. I have two charts prepared just for today's trading for you as a guide.
If we rally today, the bulls will face some resistance at the 80 or 84 level. In the event that, there is any attempt to push stocks higher....the bulls will have to get pass 84.4 to show that this is the bottom. But I think this is unlikely because today is Friday and nobody wants to hold stocks over the weekend. I am posting this chart to be prepared for any big surprises.
Due to weak market sentiments, I think the chart below is another likely scenario. In the event that the market wish to push lower, I see the two possible levels of support as 71.15 or 67.65.
Kindly note that these charts are only for today. I will make another update before Monday.
Price and volume action is extremely important to see what happens on Monday.
Strategy: Day Trade only. We are very close to a possible support for a strong rebound.
The chart below shows the SPY, notice the light volume of the early rebound. I have two charts prepared just for today's trading for you as a guide.
If we rally today, the bulls will face some resistance at the 80 or 84 level. In the event that, there is any attempt to push stocks higher....the bulls will have to get pass 84.4 to show that this is the bottom. But I think this is unlikely because today is Friday and nobody wants to hold stocks over the weekend. I am posting this chart to be prepared for any big surprises.
Due to weak market sentiments, I think the chart below is another likely scenario. In the event that the market wish to push lower, I see the two possible levels of support as 71.15 or 67.65.
Kindly note that these charts are only for today. I will make another update before Monday.
Price and volume action is extremely important to see what happens on Monday.
Strategy: Day Trade only. We are very close to a possible support for a strong rebound.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Caugt while taking a piss (20 Nov 2008)
Holly molly...bought some TNA trying to catch the rally yesterday at SPX - 830, went to take a piss and the next thing....SPX tanked.... F#$%&.
Anyway, have been analysing SPX for close to 1 hour to see all possible scenarios. Doesn't look good, no matter how I draw the fibs...the trendlines.. I have arrived at the conclusion that 835-840 area is going to offer some significant resistance.
I think the SPX will likely retrace a little bit to somewhere close to 825-840 before going down again. Some possible levels of support from my analysis are as shown in the SPX chart.
The conditions now are ideal for a move down with the Dollar getting stronger and Financials tanking each single day.
But I must warn you that a bear market rally is imminent at some point. You have all seen what happened when a short sale ban was enforced by the SEC.
So the question is whether this downtrend is a result of short selling or real selling? I would pray that it is due to short selling because this is the only way that SPX is going to have a very big bounce. If this is due to real selling, GOD help us....
I have not forgotten the Maximum Pain for SPY = 94, it is quite far from where we are now. But I will advise you to always stay alert for a bear market rally today because today is Option Expiry day.
Strategy:
Daytrade: ERX, TNA, IWM (puts)
Anyway, have been analysing SPX for close to 1 hour to see all possible scenarios. Doesn't look good, no matter how I draw the fibs...the trendlines.. I have arrived at the conclusion that 835-840 area is going to offer some significant resistance.
I think the SPX will likely retrace a little bit to somewhere close to 825-840 before going down again. Some possible levels of support from my analysis are as shown in the SPX chart.
The conditions now are ideal for a move down with the Dollar getting stronger and Financials tanking each single day.
But I must warn you that a bear market rally is imminent at some point. You have all seen what happened when a short sale ban was enforced by the SEC.
So the question is whether this downtrend is a result of short selling or real selling? I would pray that it is due to short selling because this is the only way that SPX is going to have a very big bounce. If this is due to real selling, GOD help us....
I have not forgotten the Maximum Pain for SPY = 94, it is quite far from where we are now. But I will advise you to always stay alert for a bear market rally today because today is Option Expiry day.
Strategy:
Daytrade: ERX, TNA, IWM (puts)
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
A possible scenario (19 Nov 2008)
Today's price actions demonstrates that, MM is trying to get as many people to buy puts or go short.
Personally, I don't favor going short due to certain technical indicators I see.
First, the VIX is overbought and is making lower highs. If it stays above 65 this week and does not go higher...this just shows the market will go sideways. On the other hand, if the VIX makes its way to 55...then we will likely experience a nice rally to about SPY - 88 or slightly above.
Althought Max Pain shows a possible move to SPY - 96, I don't think the market is quite ready for such a huge move. But I suspect that MM might try to push the market higher to kill off as many shorts as possible with a good profit.
In short, I think a scaled down year end rally is coming. Get ready with your favourite stocks or etfs.
Here is a typical scenario for the SPY, if there is a rally.
As usual, my bias is as neutral as ever. Im watching the price and volume actions on a daily basis.
Personally, I don't favor going short due to certain technical indicators I see.
First, the VIX is overbought and is making lower highs. If it stays above 65 this week and does not go higher...this just shows the market will go sideways. On the other hand, if the VIX makes its way to 55...then we will likely experience a nice rally to about SPY - 88 or slightly above.
Althought Max Pain shows a possible move to SPY - 96, I don't think the market is quite ready for such a huge move. But I suspect that MM might try to push the market higher to kill off as many shorts as possible with a good profit.
In short, I think a scaled down year end rally is coming. Get ready with your favourite stocks or etfs.
Here is a typical scenario for the SPY, if there is a rally.
As usual, my bias is as neutral as ever. Im watching the price and volume actions on a daily basis.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
A big move is coming soon (18 Nov 2008)
I am trying to make some post here as often as I can, but its important that you guys don't lose money by following any advise that I give....lol
I've been very careful trading these markets as we are closer to options expiry. Usually, the trading range is quite tight...when you realize that a move has begun...you might be too late to catch it.
Chart below shows SPY. I think a big move is coming soon. If there are more shorts in the market, I suspect there could be a push higher for MM/ Whales to lock in profits. On the contrary, a push to the downside shall retest the lows (82.5, 78.15) if we breach 835 - 840 level.
The chart below shows the UUP, indicating that the dollar is a bit overbought...but has found some support on the trendline. I believe the dollar is the key to unlocking any moves higher, a strong dollar is bad for commodities.
Strategy:
I have no strong bias on any stocks, Im daytrading.
Here is my watch list: FDX, CMP, FSLR, PNC, V, XOM.
....NUVA, ISRG, BWLD
I've been very careful trading these markets as we are closer to options expiry. Usually, the trading range is quite tight...when you realize that a move has begun...you might be too late to catch it.
Chart below shows SPY. I think a big move is coming soon. If there are more shorts in the market, I suspect there could be a push higher for MM/ Whales to lock in profits. On the contrary, a push to the downside shall retest the lows (82.5, 78.15) if we breach 835 - 840 level.
The chart below shows the UUP, indicating that the dollar is a bit overbought...but has found some support on the trendline. I believe the dollar is the key to unlocking any moves higher, a strong dollar is bad for commodities.
Strategy:
I have no strong bias on any stocks, Im daytrading.
Here is my watch list: FDX, CMP, FSLR, PNC, V, XOM.
....NUVA, ISRG, BWLD
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Gold and Dollar (14 nov 2008)
There is also a story developing in gold and the dollar.
The dollar is retreating back to its 20 MA, and will likely find some support there. Notice the lower high made in the UUP chart.
Any weakening of the dollar will be an opportunity for gold to rally, but I am not saying that the dollar trend for going higher is over....its just taking a break.
At the moment GLD is still under pressure, note the low trading volume. I have charted a possible path for GLD if the dollar can ease up a little.
If you wish to play gold purely... go for the GLD, but you could also go for the gold miners. Of course, the risk for playing through the miners is the risk due to lowering of earning guidance.
Kindly take note that, playing gold through the miners is speculative in nature and its quite a difficult game IMO.
The dollar is retreating back to its 20 MA, and will likely find some support there. Notice the lower high made in the UUP chart.
Any weakening of the dollar will be an opportunity for gold to rally, but I am not saying that the dollar trend for going higher is over....its just taking a break.
At the moment GLD is still under pressure, note the low trading volume. I have charted a possible path for GLD if the dollar can ease up a little.
If you wish to play gold purely... go for the GLD, but you could also go for the gold miners. Of course, the risk for playing through the miners is the risk due to lowering of earning guidance.
Kindly take note that, playing gold through the miners is speculative in nature and its quite a difficult game IMO.
SPY chart for coming days (14 Nov 2008)
Interesting day, to revive hopes for the bulls. As usual, my stance is as neutral as ever.... lol
The chart below shows SPY with trading levels of interest in "Red".
In the coming days, SPY will attempt to get above the 50 MA of 102.09 for any hope of going higher. If it fails, expect a reversal and resumption in the downtrend.
An important retest of 112 will then follow to determine whether SPY will be heading down or up for the rest of the year.
Strategy: I am planning to daytrade agressively.
The chart below shows SPY with trading levels of interest in "Red".
In the coming days, SPY will attempt to get above the 50 MA of 102.09 for any hope of going higher. If it fails, expect a reversal and resumption in the downtrend.
An important retest of 112 will then follow to determine whether SPY will be heading down or up for the rest of the year.
Strategy: I am planning to daytrade agressively.
SPY, DECK, PNC (13 Nov 2008)
Good morning all, hope you enjoyed your trading session yesterday. :)
Firstly, take note that we are 8 days from options expiry. So try not to hold your options overnight, MM might have a few surprises for you.
I am still maintaining a neutral stance on the market, this morning's price behavior will determine what I wanna do next.
Looking at the chart of SPY, we are approaching a key support level. So if we bounce with volume, I might wanna enter some short term longs using ETFs like TNA. If we breach that resistance level, then it is safe to go short to ride along.
However do be careful with some stocks that you wanna short. Take DECK for example, I think it is reaching a key support or trendline. I am planning to daytrade this stock only.
Another potential short that I am looking at is PNC, if this breaches 60 by the end of the day...it could reach 55 before any short term bounce.
Intraday Updates: Not sure if this is a fake...?
Firstly, take note that we are 8 days from options expiry. So try not to hold your options overnight, MM might have a few surprises for you.
I am still maintaining a neutral stance on the market, this morning's price behavior will determine what I wanna do next.
Looking at the chart of SPY, we are approaching a key support level. So if we bounce with volume, I might wanna enter some short term longs using ETFs like TNA. If we breach that resistance level, then it is safe to go short to ride along.
However do be careful with some stocks that you wanna short. Take DECK for example, I think it is reaching a key support or trendline. I am planning to daytrade this stock only.
Another potential short that I am looking at is PNC, if this breaches 60 by the end of the day...it could reach 55 before any short term bounce.
Intraday Updates: Not sure if this is a fake...?
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