Wednesday, November 19, 2008

A possible scenario (19 Nov 2008)

Today's price actions demonstrates that, MM is trying to get as many people to buy puts or go short.

Personally, I don't favor going short due to certain technical indicators I see.

First, the VIX is overbought and is making lower highs. If it stays above 65 this week and does not go higher...this just shows the market will go sideways. On the other hand, if the VIX makes its way to 55...then we will likely experience a nice rally to about SPY - 88 or slightly above.



Althought Max Pain shows a possible move to SPY - 96, I don't think the market is quite ready for such a huge move. But I suspect that MM might try to push the market higher to kill off as many shorts as possible with a good profit.


In short, I think a scaled down year end rally is coming. Get ready with your favourite stocks or etfs.

Here is a typical scenario for the SPY, if there is a rally.

As usual, my bias is as neutral as ever. Im watching the price and volume actions on a daily basis.

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