Sunday, September 21, 2008

9 days to Oct 2

GS and MS are becoming banks with investment banking units.

Hmmm....Should have seen this coming. Thats a no wonder there is a ban on short selling until Oct2.

Apparently, it looks like the SEC wants to allow some time for investors to gauge the value of both these firms. So in the coming days, I am expecting some real selling (meaning no shorting). And eventually the share price of these firms will reveal their true valuations.

So for those of you who bought puts on XLF, it was a wise move. Unless those hedge funds strategically bought shares in some of these 799 financial institutions, I expect the selling to be limited. In addition investors might decide to sell for the sake of profit taking or reducing their risk exposure. But we must remember that, those financial institutions were quite oversold before the ruling.

A Bloomberg report thinks that this will mean a bottom for commodities and expect commodities to rally. I feel commodities are already rallying quite rapidly....meaning that commodities could rally a bit more before we classify them as overbought...reason being the Global demand destruction story is still pretty intact.

Hopefully, the dust will settle by Oct2. In the short term GLD is a good buy. But I don't recommend getting options due to its high volatility, go for the ETF or stocks.

I would stay away from the options market for now.

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