The bigger picture (March 13, 2009)

I was asking myself why is the rally so damn powerful....it was unlike what we have seen before for the past few months. Then the thought came to me that, the short sellers/ bears are taking profits for most of their shorts accumulated over the months in preparation for the uptick rule.

When we have an uptick rule, each short needs an uptick....so if nobody is selling....shorts will have great difficulty making a profit. I am not saying nobody will want to sell anything....just that we are now at multi year lows. Furthermore, there is so much cash waiting to invest on the sidelines. When they do come in there will be more buyers than sellers. Not many professionals will wanna go short for this simple reason.

Alrite back to some charts.

Just to give you an idea of how high we could go before meeting any key resistance.

Here is a chart of SPY, showing some congestion area above 80.5.


Below is a chart of S&P Emini March, showing that we are entering a "minor congestion zone"....so I would not be surprised to see some consolidation tomorrow. The key test 805 and above. Also notice the much much lower volume on the ES...indicating that this powerful rally caught a lot of people by surprise.