Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Possible outlook and updates (04 Nov 2008)

The market remains in a wait and see mode, but MMs are making plenty of money at this moment....while buyers or sellers are positioned for a bull run or a plunge....

Commodities are suppose to fall hard if not for the elections. I think Thursday will be a key day for commodities, if ECB cut rates....I think this might have a negative impact on commodities. But if EURO rebounds on the same day, we could possibly see commodities hang around for a little longer.

The EURO could be due for some correction later in the day or tomorrow during European trading hours.


As for the SPY, it is still trading below the "Chop Zone". Usually, I would favor a slight pull back before any attempts to breach past the two layers of resistance highlighted in red to get past the "Chop Zone". But it is possible that the historical buyers might want to delay any selling until after the elections for a better price.


I think SPY could possibly pullback a little if we base on the VIX. I see VIX falling to about 51 (red trendline).

Unless, we have no pullbacks and have a really powerful rally, then we might see VIX fall towards 35. I seriously have some doubts that this can be achieved overnight.

Perhaps we can learn a little about the market this week...lol.

Strategy:
1. Buy some inverse ETF when VIX reaches 51, go small first. I still own some DUG and am continuing to observe the EURO

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